Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 34

Date: 26 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Pereira Sampiao S. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, BandSports, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, TV Brasil, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Ceará		Paysandu

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.2	8	Watch
	1.4	4.33	7
	1.42	4.33	7.5	Watch
	1.41	4.58	8.41
	1.43	4.32	7.5	Watch
	1.44	4.2	6.5
	1.42	4.45	7.37	Watch
	1.42	4.33	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.52)	4.34 ↑ (3.4)	7.47 ↑ (6.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
65.9%

Draw
21.6%

Paysandu
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.9%

26.8%

13.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.9%

26.4%

13.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ceará's performance.

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Ceará - Paysandu Predictions

Users Predictions: Ceará will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 6. Ramos R. 3. Joao Pedro 4. David Ricardo 79. Matheus Bahia 26. Richardson 28. Recalde J. 97. Lourenco (C) 73. Saulo Mineiro 11. Aylon 16. Erick Pulga	13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 21. Bryan 4. Wanderson 27. Lucas Maia 36. Kevyn 35. Luan Freitas 28. Leandro Vilela 8. Joao Vieira (C) 9. Paulinho Boia 26. Ruan Ribeiro 24. Borasi B.
Substitutes
98. Andrey 31. Barcelo F. 8. De Lucca 14. Eric 5. Jean Irmer 10. Lucas Mugni 77. Lucas Rian 42. Matheus Felipe 12. Maycon Cleiton (G) 18. Rafinha 2. Rai Ramos 70. Talisson	17. Biel Fonseca 23. Carlao 12. Diogo Silva (G) 2. Edilson 15. Garcia E. 22. Jean Dias 14. Juninho 16. Michel Macedo 11. Nicolas 3. Quintana Y. 39. Wesley Fraga
Coaches
Leo Conde	Marcio Fernandes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', Saulo Mineiro 🟨,
20', Wanderson 🟨,
21', 1 - 0, Saulo Mineiro (Pen),
36', Matheus Bahia 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Wanderson ↓, Quintana Y. ↑,
46', Leandro Vilela ↓, Juninho ↑,
47', 1 - 1, Ramos R. (Own goal),
55', 2 - 1, Erick Pulga ⚽, Ramos R. (A),
74', Recalde J. ↓, Lucas Mugni ↑,
75', Ruan Ribeiro ↓, Biel Fonseca ↑,
75', Juninho ↓, Nicolas ↑,
77', Luan Freitas ↓, Jean Dias ↑,
87', Lourenco ↓, De Lucca ↑,
88', Ramos R. ↓, Rai Ramos ↑,
90+5', Aylon ↓, Lucas Rian ↑,
90+5', Saulo Mineiro ↓, Barcelo F. ↑,

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ceará won 2.

Recent matches Ceará is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Paysandu is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Paysandu could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Ceará is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Ceará won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10:11 (average 1.1:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Ceará won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:2 (average 1.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
22.10.24	Santos - Ceará	1:0 ✺
19.10.24	Ituano - Ceará	1:2 ✺
12.10.24	Ceará - Ponte Preta	1:0 ✺
07.10.24	Sport Recife - Ceará	2:1 ✺
27.09.24	Ceará - Brusque	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWWLW
- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
23.10.24	Paysandu - Coritiba	2:1 ✺
20.10.24	Operário Ferroviario - Paysandu	1:1 ✺
09.10.24	Paysandu - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
04.10.24	CRB Maceio - Paysandu	3:2 ✺
27.09.24	Paysandu - Ituano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
12.07.24	Paysandu - Ceará	2:1
14.11.17	Ceará - Paysandu	2:0
28.07.17	Paysandu - Ceará	1:2
20.08.16	Paysandu - Ceará	2:0
14.05.16	Ceará - Paysandu	2:2
01.09.15	Ceará - Paysandu	0:0
23.05.15	Paysandu - Ceará	2:1

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