Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 14 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadion Z'dezele (Celje)

Referee: Martinez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Slovenia	Sport TV1
Switzerland	RSI La 2
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Celje		Lugano

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.4	2.5	Watch
	2.1	3.6	2.9
	2.42	3.55	2.58	Watch
	2.49	3.6	2.5
	1.99	3.20	3.92	Watch
	2.59	3.64	2.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (1.94)	3.5 ↓ (3.65)	2.84 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celje
40%

Draw
26.9%

Lugano
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.6%

25.3%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

24.5%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Celje's form might have worsened.

Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lugano's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celje than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Celje, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lugano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	5.6%	38.9%

Celje - Lugano Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Celje will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). Lugano will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Celje: 32.6% – 78.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Celje (votes: 1 - 25%). Lugano (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Celje (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Lugano (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Lugano (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Celje (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Lugano (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leban Z. (G) 2. Juanjo Nieto 23. Karnicnik Z. (C) 3. Vuklisevic D. 6. Tutyskinas A. 19. Zabukovnik M. 8. Kvesic M. 11. Avdyli M. 20. Iosifov N. 10. Sturm D. 9. Kovacevic F.	1. Saipi A. (G) 4. Kelvin D. 6. Papadopoulos A. 22. El Wafi A. 7. Alioski E. 11. Steffen R. (C) 8. Grgic A. 29. Belhadj M. 24. Pihlstrom E. 97. Duville-Parsemain A. 9. Koutsias G.
Substitutes
44. Bejger L. 42. Boben M. 14. Chidi A. 13. Daniel P. 4. Hrka D. 7. Jevsenak F. 12. Kolar L. (G) 16. Vidovic I. 5. Vodeb G. 38. Zuzek Z.	91. Behrens K. 25. Bislimi U. 2. Brault-Guillard Z. 21. Cimignani Y. 27. Dos Santos D. 20. Doumbia O. 5. Hajdari A. 18. Mahou H. 99. Mina D. (G) 15. Pseftis F. (G)
Coaches
Riera A.	Croci-Torti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Grgic A. (Pen),
22', 1 - 1, Kovacevic F. ⚽, Kvesic M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Kelvin D. ↓, Brault-Guillard Z. ↑,
55', Duville-Parsemain A. ↓, Dos Santos D. ↑,
58', Steffen R. 🟨,
59', Karnicnik Z. 🟨,
62', Grgic A. 🟨,
65', Belhadj M. ↓, Mahou H. ↑,
65', Pihlstrom E. ↓, Bislimi U. ↑,
67', 2 - 1, Kvesic M. ⚽, Avdyli M. (A),
70', 2 - 2, Papadopoulos A. ⚽,
71', Karnicnik Z. ↓, Boben M. ↑,
71', Juanjo Nieto ↓, Daniel P. ↑,
74', Bislimi U. 🟨,
78', Iosifov N. ↓, Vidovic I. ↑,
78', Sturm D. ↓, Chidi A. ↑,
78', Koutsias G. ↓, Behrens K. ↑,
81', 2 - 3, Steffen R. ⚽, Dos Santos D. (A),
82', Kvesic M. ↓, Hrka D. ↑,
85', 2 - 4, Alioski E. (Pen),

Preview

1st leg result: 5-0. 2nd leg.

Celje is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lugano's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Celje could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Celje will win today's game, with odds of 2.12.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Celje won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 3.7:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Celje won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Celje
Slovenian PrvaLiga
10.08.25	Celje - Mura	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Lugano - Celje	0:5 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
03.08.25	Olimpija Ljubljana - Celje	0:5 ✺
UEFA Europa League
31.07.25	AEK Larnaca - Celje	2:1 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
27.07.25	Celje - Radomlje	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.5 WWWLW
- FC Lugano
Swiss Super League
10.08.25	Lugano - Basel	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Lugano - Celje	0:5 ✺
Swiss Super League
03.08.25	Sion - Lugano	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
31.07.25	CFR Cluj - Lugano	1:0 ET ✺
Swiss Super League
27.07.25	Lugano - Thun	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Lugano - Celje	0:5
13.03.25	Lugano - Celje	5:5 penalties
06.03.25	Celje - Lugano	1:0

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