Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA LIBERTADORES - QUALIFICATION - FINAL

Date: 16 March 2023, Thursday

Location: Estadio General Pablo Rojas (Asunción)

Referee: Valenzuela J. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV


	Cerro Porteño		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.2	2.75	Watch
	2.55	3.1	2.8
	2.5	3.25	2.9
	2.5	3.05	2.7
	2.73	3.22	2.73
	2.6	2.9	2.7
	2.7	3.2	2.67	Watch
	2.55	3.05	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.14)	3.12 ↓ (3.33)	2.74 ↓ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro Porteño
36.2%

Draw
29.8%

Fortaleza
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

27.7%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

27%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro Porteño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cerro Porteño's form might have worsened.

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cerro Porteño, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fortaleza, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	66.7%	8.3%

Cerro Porteño - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Cerro Porteño will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 40% – 93.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Cerro Porteño is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Fortaleza is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fortaleza could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Cerro Porteño won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerro Porteño
Paraguayan Primera Division
13.03.23	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Luqueño	3:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.03.23	Fortaleza - Cerro Porteño	0:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
04.03.23	Olimpia Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.02.23	Cerro Porteño - Curicó Unido	1:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
24.02.23	Cerro Porteño - Resistencia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 TWTWT
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
12.03.23	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.03.23	Fortaleza - Cerro Porteño	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
05.03.23	Ceará - Fortaleza	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.03.23	Fortaleza - Deportivo Maldonado	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.02.23	Fortaleza - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
09.03.23	Fortaleza - Cerro Porteño	0:1

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