Match Info

Copa del Rey - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Reino de León (León)

Referee: Hernandez A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Flow Eventos
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 2, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Colombia	Win play
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hungary	Sport 2
India	FanCode, FanCode
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Flow Sports 2 Caribbean
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Portugal	Sport TV6
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 7
Spain	M+ LaLiga
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Leonesa		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	6	4.1	1.46	Watch
	6.4	4.15	1.55
	5.77	3.81	1.59	Watch
	6	4	1.44
	6.54	4.13	1.57	Watch
	6.33	4	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.17 ↑ (4.28)	4.03 ↑ (3.62)	1.52 ↓ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leonesa
15.2%

Draw
23.2%

Athletic Bilbao
61.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.7%

25.7%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9%

24.4%

49.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leonesa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leonesa's form might have worsened.

Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Athletic Bilbao's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leonesa than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leonesa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Athletic Bilbao, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.6%	10.7%	85.7%

Leonesa - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Athletic (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Athletic Bilbao will win (24 of 28 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.75% – 98.67%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Athletic Bilbao will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Athletic (votes: 14 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Banuz M. (C) 24. Garcia V. 5. Fornos Q. 36. Barzic M. 21. Hinojo R. 6. Maestre S. 23. Diallo Selu M. 17. Calero I. 14. Bicho 19. Sobrino R. 9. Justo M.	27. Padilla A. (G) 2. Gorosabel A. 3. Vivian D. 4. Paredes A. 15. Lekue I. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 18. Garcia E. 9. Williams I. 8. Sancet O. 10. Williams N. 11. Guruzeta G.
Substitutes
10. Chacon L. 7. Collado D. 8. Gonzalez Y. 37. Luengo C. 28. Ojeda T. 26. Rafus A. (G) 15. Ribeiro L. 16. Ribeiro T. 4. Rodri Suarez 3. Satrustegui E. 20. Tresaco R.	12. Areso J. 17. Berchiche Y. 20. Gomez U. 25. Izeta 47. Monreal I. 23. Navarro R. 30. Rego A. 44. Sanchez S. 22. Serrano N. 1. Simon U. (G)
Coaches
Ziganda C.	Valverde E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 3)
16', 1 - 0, Calero I. ⚽, Garcia V. (A),
26', 1 - 1, Guruzeta G. ⚽, Gorosabel A. (A),
27', 2 - 1, Calero I. ⚽, Justo M. (A),
38', 2 - 2, Guruzeta G. ⚽, Ruiz de Galarreta I. (A),
41', 3 - 2, Sobrino R. (Penalty Awarded),
45+3', 3 - 3, Sancet O. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bicho ↓, Gonzalez Y. ↑,
56', Paredes A. 🟥,
59', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Berchiche Y. ↑,
62', Sancet O. 🟨,
64', Diallo Selu M. 🟨,
64', Sobrino R. ↓, Ribeiro L. ↑,
64', Diallo Selu M. ↓, Ojeda T. ↑,
68', Sancet O. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,
68', Gorosabel A. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
78', Calero I. ↓, Chacon L. ↑,
84', Guruzeta G. ↓, Izeta ↑,
84', Williams I. ↓, Navarro R. ↑,
90+4', Berchiche Y. 🟨,
90+4', Ojeda T. 🟨,
90+4', Izeta 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 1)
99', Justo M. ↓, Collado D. ↑,
104', 3 - 4, Gomez U. (Penalty Awarded),
105', Lekue I. ↓, Boiro A. ↑,
106', Hinojo R. ↓, Ribeiro T. ↑,

Preview

Leonesa has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Athletic has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Athletic may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Athletic has had a series of away games.

In this match, Athletic is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Leonesa: Pibe (Injury)

There will not play in Athletic: Alvarez Y. (Doping) Egiluz U. (Knee Injury) Laporte A. (Muscle Injury) Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sannadi M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Athletic: Berchiche Y. (Hamstring Injury) Vesga M. (Back Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Outrights of Spanish Copa del Rey for now

Ath Bilbao: 3.23%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa
Spanish LaLiga2
10.01.26	FC Andorra - Leonesa	1:1 ✺
03.01.26	Leonesa - Real Sociedad B	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Las Palmas - Leonesa	4:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
17.12.25	Leonesa - Levante	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
12.12.25	Leonesa - Huesca	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TTLWL
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish Supercopa
07.01.26	Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao	5:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
03.01.26	Osasuna - Athletic Bilbao	1:1 ✺
22.12.25	Athletic Bilbao - Espanyol	1:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
18.12.25	Ourense CF - Athletic Bilbao	0:1 ET ✺
Spanish LaLiga
14.12.25	Celta de Vigo - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTLWL

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