Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 22

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Reino de León (León)

Referee: Sanchez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	Disney+
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Leonesa		Sporting de Gijón

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.1	2.25	Watch
	3.1	3.05	2.3	Watch
	3.35	3.07	2.33	Watch
	3.2	2.9	2.38
	3.38	3.08	2.38	Watch
	3.25	3	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.26 ↑ (2.72)	3.03 ↓ (3.07)	2.33 ↓ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leonesa
28.8%

Draw
31%

Sporting de Gijón
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

30.5%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

29.1%

33.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leonesa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Leonesa's form might have worsened.

Sporting de Gijón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sporting de Gijón's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leonesa than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leonesa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sporting de Gijón than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sporting de Gijón, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	25%	58.3%

Leonesa - Sporting de Gijón Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Leonesa will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Sporting de Gijón will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sporting de Gijón: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Sporting de Gijón (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sporting de Gijón will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting de Gijón (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Badia E. (G) 24. Garcia V. 4. Rodri Suarez (C) 16. Ribeiro T. 21. Hinojo R. 6. Maestre S. 15. Ribeiro L. 23. Diallo Selu M. 28. Ojeda T. 20. Tresaco R. 7. Collado D.	1. Yanez R. (G) 2. Rosas G. 23. Curbelo E. 15. Vazquez P. 12. Olivan B. 10. Gelabert Pina C. 6. Nacho Martin 36. Rodriguez M. 14. Corredera A. (C) 19. Otero J. 17. Dubasin J.
Substitutes
1. Banuz M. (G) 17. Calero I. 10. Chacon L. 5. Fornos Q. 8. Gonzalez Y. 9. Justo M. 37. Luengo C. 26. Rafus A. (G) 3. Satrustegui E. 19. Sobrino R.	8. Bernal J. 18. Coundoul A. 34. Garcia A. D. 3. Garcia P. 13. Joel C. (G) 27. Oyon A. 4. Perrin L. 11. Queipo D. 5. Sanchez D. 24. Smith J. 20. Vazquez K.
Coaches
Ziganda C.	Jimenez B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 3)
10', 1 - 0, Collado D. ⚽, Tresaco R. (A),
12', 1 - 1, Otero J. ⚽, Rosas G. (A),
16', 1 - 2, Dubasin J. ⚽,
27', Garcia V. ↓, Calero I. ↑,
43', 1 - 3, Otero J. ⚽, Olivan B. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Tresaco R. ↓, Sobrino R. ↑,
46', Ojeda T. ↓, Chacon L. ↑,
58', Ribeiro L. 🟨,
58', Olivan B. 🟨,
59', Rodriguez M. ↓, Perrin L. ↑,
60', 2 - 3, Calero I. ⚽,
63', 2 - 4, Vazquez P. ⚽, Corredera A. (A),
65', Perrin L. 🟨,
75', Collado D. ↓, Justo M. ↑,
77', Gelabert Pina C. ↓, Smith J. ↑,
83', Olivan B. ↓, Garcia P. ↑,
83', Nacho Martin ↓, Bernal J. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 15 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leonesa won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Leonesa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Leonesa: Barzic M. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Sporting de Gijón: Loum M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Leonesa: Mboula J. (Inactive) Pibe (Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Leonesa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 3:11. (average 0.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Leonesa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Gijon	8	4	1	3	8:8	0	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa
Spanish Copa del Rey
13.01.26	Leonesa - Athletic Bilbao	3:4 ET ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
10.01.26	FC Andorra - Leonesa	1:1 ✺
03.01.26	Leonesa - Real Sociedad B	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Las Palmas - Leonesa	4:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
17.12.25	Leonesa - Levante	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LTTLW
- Sporting de Gijón
Spanish LaLiga2
09.01.26	Cádiz - Sporting de Gijón	3:2 ✺
04.01.26	Sporting de Gijón - Málaga	1:3 ✺
20.12.25	Leganés - Sporting de Gijón	0:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.12.25	Sporting de Gijón - Valencia	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
13.12.25	Sporting de Gijón - Granada	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
29.08.25	Sporting de Gijón - Leonesa	1:0
Club Friendly
06.08.25	Sporting de Gijón - Leonesa	3:2
05.08.23	Leonesa - Sporting de Gijón	1:0
01.08.18	Leonesa - Sporting de Gijón	0:1
Spanish LaLiga2
11.03.18	Sporting de Gijón - Leonesa	4:0
10.10.17	Leonesa - Sporting de Gijón	0:2

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