Match Info

Date: 29 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó)

Referee: da Silva Junior J. M. (Bra)


	Chapecoense		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.23	5.75	11
	1.25	5.6	8.5
	1.23	5.4	11
	1.25	6.14	12.55
	1.24	5.25	12
	1.24	5.65	11.5	Watch
	1.24	5.6	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.46)	5.63 ↑ (3.85)	11.08 ↑ (6.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
75.1%

Draw
16.5%

Náutico Capibaribe
8.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.2%

23.7%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.2%

22.6%

13.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chapecoense's performance.

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Náutico Capibaribe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chapecoense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Náutico Capibaribe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Chapecoense - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Users Predictions: Chapecoense will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 15 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage)).

Recent matches Chapecoense is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Náutico is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Náutico could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Chapecoense is indisputable favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Chapecoense won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Chapecoense won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie B
21.10.22	Chapecoense - Tombense	3:2 ✺
11.10.22	Sampaio Corrêa - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
08.10.22	Chapecoense - Operário Ferroviario	1:1 ✺
04.10.22	CRB Maceio - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
30.09.22	Chapecoense - Bahia	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLTLW
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
23.10.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Grêmio	0:3 ✺
14.10.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Náutico Capibaribe	6:0 ✺
07.10.22	Criciúma - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
04.10.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Tombense	4:3 ✺
28.09.22	Sport Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
17.07.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Chapecoense	1:2
16.12.20	Chapecoense - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0
18.09.20	Náutico Capibaribe - Chapecoense	1:1

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