Match Info

National League South - Round 45

Date: 21 April 2025, Monday


	Chelmsford City		Welling United

	1	X	2
	2	3.2	3.2
	2.02	3.5	3.35
	1.99	3.66	3.46
	2	3.63	3.46	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.4
	1.96	3.86	3.34
	2.02	3.5	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.07)	3.52 ↓ (3.58)	3.37 ↑ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelmsford City
46.2%

Draw
26.3%

Welling United
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

25.8%

29.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

25.6%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelmsford City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Welling United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelmsford City than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Welling United than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Chelmsford City - Welling United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Ruff C. ⚽,
32', 2 - 0, Ruff C. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
50', 2 - 1, Redfearn J. ⚽,
55', 3 - 1, Donaldson R. ⚽,
80', 4 - 1, Hockey F. ⚽,
84', 5 - 1, Tamplin A. ⚽,

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 13 and 22 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chelmsford won 4.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Chelmsford will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Chelmsford won 11 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 23:15 (average 1.2:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Chelmsford won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:4 (average 1:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelmsford City
English National League South
18.04.25	Aveley - Chelmsford City	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Chelmsford City - Enfield Town	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Chippenham Town - Chelmsford City	0:1 ✺
29.03.25	Chelmsford City - Truro City	0:0 ✺
22.03.25	Tonbridge Angels - Chelmsford City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLWTL
- Welling United
English National League South
18.04.25	Welling United - Maidstone United	0:4 ✺
12.04.25	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Welling United	5:0 ✺
05.04.25	Welling United - Hornchurch	0:0 ✺
29.03.25	Chesham United - Welling United	4:1 ✺
22.03.25	Welling United - Worthing	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
26.12.24	Welling United - Chelmsford City	0:1
22.01.24	Chelmsford City - Welling United	1:0
15.08.23	Welling United - Chelmsford City	1:2
28.01.23	Chelmsford City - Welling United	0:1
27.08.22	Welling United - Chelmsford City	1:2
19.03.22	Welling United - Chelmsford City	1:0
15.01.22	Chelmsford City - Welling United	0:0

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