Match Info

National League South - Round 41

Date: 29 March 2025, Saturday

Location: The Meadow (Chesham)


	Chesham United		Welling United

	1	X	2
	2	3.2	3.1
	2.07	3.45	3.25
	2.11	3.5	3.28	Watch
	2.08	3.42	3.23
	2.07	3.45	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.28)	3.4 ↓ (3.51)	3.22 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chesham United
44.5%

Draw
27%

Welling United
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

26.3%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

24.9%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chesham United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Welling United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chesham United than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Welling United than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Chesham United - Welling United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (4 - 1)
54', 1 - 0, Minhas N. ⚽,
58', 1 - 1, Di Trolio R. ⚽,
62', 2 - 1, Upward R. ⚽,
78', Kennedy G. 🟥,
90+1', 3 - 1, Esan S. ⚽,
90+5', 4 - 1, Grant J. ⚽,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 15 and 22 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Chesham could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Chesham will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Chesham won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:3 (average 2:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Chesham United - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.64%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chesham United
English National League South
22.03.25	Weston-super-Mare - Chesham United	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Chesham United - St Albans City	1:0 ✺
11.03.25	Chesham United - Tonbridge Angels	0:1 ✺
08.03.25	Worthing - Chesham United	3:0 ✺
01.03.25	Chesham United - Truro City	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TWLLL
- Welling United
English National League South
22.03.25	Welling United - Worthing	2:0 ✺
18.03.25	Welling United - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:2 ✺
15.03.25	Farnborough - Welling United	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Truro City - Welling United	3:2 ✺
01.03.25	Welling United - Slough Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
31.08.24	Welling United - Chesham United	1:3
English FA Cup
22.09.18	Welling United - Chesham United	2:1

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