Match Info

FNL - Round 15

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Central Stadium (Chelyabinsk)

Referee: Zhabchenko A. (Ukr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	MATCH! Planeta, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	Chelyabinsk		Arsenal Tula

	1	X	2
	2.42	3.05	3.44
	2.4	3.17	3.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.35)	3.11 ↓ (3.22)	3.31 ↑ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelyabinsk
39.9%

Draw
30.9%

Arsenal Tula
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelyabinsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Arsenal Tula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelyabinsk than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Chelyabinsk - Arsenal Tula Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Arsenal (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Tuseev I. (G) 10. Gadzhimuradov R. 5. Gatin B. 66. Gudkov Y. 18. Kertanov K. 27. Kochiev K. 70. Levin G. 15. Pushkarev D. 77. Samoilov D. 29. Urvantsev M. 2. Zhirov A. (C)	42. Melikhov A. (G) 59. Avanesyan T. 77. Berdnikov A. 19. Bogdanets K. 9. Kalmykov A. (C) 45. Karmaev N. 27. Mirzov R. 4. Penchikov D. 15. Putsko A. 25. Troshechkin A. 22. Tsaraev A.
Substitutes
79. Abdullin R. 33. Agaev A. 23. Emelyanov D. 22. Gapechkin A. 19. Komissarov T. 7. Malyarov N. 63. Nikitenkov A. 11. Nosov A. 72. Novikov O. (G) 14. Palkin V. 1. Zadiraka V. (G)	31. Bolshakov K. 3. Botaka-Yoboma E. 44. Isaenko O. 78. Lipovoy D. 29. Maksimov M. 95. Obryvkov S. 8. Popov A. 21. Razdorskikh N. 7. Reyes E. 1. Sangare D. (G) 5. Sergeev D. 18. Tsulaya M. (G)
Coaches
Pilipchuk R.	Gunko D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
1', Karmaev N. 🟨,
10', 1 - 0, Urvantsev M. ⚽,
39', 2 - 0, Levin G. ⚽,
45', Tsaraev A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
47', 2 - 1, Kalmykov A. ⚽,
49', Samoilov D. 🟨,
63', Bogdanets K. ↓, Obryvkov S. ↑,
64', Mirzov R. ↓, Reyes E. ↑,
65', Karmaev N. ↓, Botaka-Yoboma E. ↑,
70', Levin G. 🟨,
71', Avanesyan T. ↓, Razdorskikh N. ↑,
72', Gatin B. 🟨,
75', Pushkarev D. ↓, Nosov A. ↑,
79', Troshechkin A. ↓, Maksimov M. ↑,
81', Kochiev K. 🟨,
83', 2 - 2, Reyes E. (Pen),
83', Gadzhimuradov R. ↓, Komissarov T. ↑,
84', Razdorskikh N. 🟨,
88', Obryvkov S. 🟨,
90', Melikhov A. 🟨,
90+4', Berdnikov A. 🟨,
90+6', Kertanov K. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 5 and 11).

Chelyabinsk is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arsenal has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Arsenal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Chelyabinsk
Russian Cup
15.10.25	Rodina Moscow - Chelyabinsk	0:1 penalties ✺
Russian FNL
06.10.25	Chelyabinsk - Yenisey Krasnoyarsk	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Ufa - Chelyabinsk	0:0 ✺
Russian Cup
25.09.25	Irkutsk - Chelyabinsk	2:3 ✺
Russian FNL
20.09.25	Chelyabinsk - Rodina Moscow	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WTTWW
- Arsenal Tula
Russian Cup
15.10.25	Arsenal Tula - Sokol Saratov	1:0 ✺
Russian FNL
11.10.25	Arsenal Tula - Torpedo Moscow	2:2 ✺
05.10.25	Sokol Saratov - Arsenal Tula	1:1 ✺
29.09.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Arsenal Tula	1:0 ✺
Russian Cup
25.09.25	Volna Kovernino - Arsenal Tula	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WTTLW

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