Match Info

FNL - Round 33

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Location: Arena Khimki (Khimki)

Referee: Plisko M. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV
Russia	MATCH! Planeta, Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	Rodina Moscow		Chelyabinsk

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.63	8.97
	1.37	4.47	8.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.62)	4.55 ↑ (3.9)	8.75 ↑ (5.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rodina Moscow
68.3%

Draw
20.9%

Chelyabinsk
10.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.3%

24.1%

17.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

23.3%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rodina Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rodina Moscow's performance.

Chelyabinsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chelyabinsk might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rodina Moscow than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rodina Moscow that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelyabinsk than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chelyabinsk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Rodina Moscow - Chelyabinsk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Volkov S. (G) 18. Abdusalamov M. 49. Dyatlov I. 5. Egorychev A. 6. Fishchenko R. 55. Krizan M. 9. Maksimenko A. 26. Meshchaninov A. (C) 10. Reyna Y. 88. Sokol A. 99. Timoshenko I.	93. Tuseev I. (G) 91. Baytukov R. 21. Berdnikov A. 10. Gadzhimuradov R. 66. Gudkov Y. 18. Kertanov K. 27. Kochiev K. (C) 19. Komissarov T. 70. Levin G. 17. N'Diaye B. 77. Samoilov D.
Substitutes
7. Arce S. 1. Aydarov S. (G) 17. Bakaev S. 22. Beskibalniy A. 80. Bessmertniy S. 8. Cissoko K. 96. Gharibyan A. 77. Koryan A. 38. Musaev L. 71. Svinov I. (G) 23. Ushatov K. 21. Yudintsev G.	33. Agaev A. 88. Eza W. 5. Gatin B. 34. Golikov D. A. (G) 11. Gongadze G. 7. Malyarov N. 72. Novikov O. (G) 14. Palkin V. 15. Pushkarev D. 44. Rusyaev I. 75. Zhamaletdinov T. 2. Zhirov A.
Coaches
Diaz J.	Pilipchuk R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Timoshenko I. ⚽,
28', Gadzhimuradov R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Gudkov Y. 🟨,
56', Abdusalamov M. ↓, Bakaev S. ↑,
63', Maksimenko A. 🟨,
67', Reyna Y. ↓, Ushatov K. ↑,
70', Kertanov K. 🟨,
74', Levin G. ↓, Gongadze G. ↑,
77', Samoilov D. 🟨,
83', Timoshenko I. ↓, Gharibyan A. ↑,
84', Maksimenko A. ↓, Bessmertniy S. ↑,
85', Bessmertniy S. 🟨,
88', 2 - 0, Gharibyan A. ⚽,
90+4', Gharibyan A. 🟥,
90+4', Kochiev K. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 9).

Rodina is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Chelyabinsk has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Rodina is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Rodina won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Rodina won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Outrights of Russian FNL for now

Chelyabinsk: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Chelyabinsk	12	3	3	6	13:19	-6	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rodina Moscow
Russian FNL
02.05.26	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Rodina Moscow	1:3 ✺
26.04.26	Rodina Moscow - Ufa	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	Rotor - Rodina Moscow	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Rodina Moscow - Volga Ulyanovsk	0:0 ✺
13.04.26	Fakel - Rodina Moscow	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWLTW
- FC Chelyabinsk
Russian FNL
02.05.26	Chelyabinsk - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Chelyabinsk - Ural	1:2 ✺
22.04.26	Arsenal Tula - Chelyabinsk	0:0 ✺
17.04.26	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Chelyabinsk	3:0 ✺
11.04.26	Chelyabinsk - SKA Khabarovsk	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Russian Cup
15.10.25	Rodina Moscow - Chelyabinsk	0:1 penalties
Russian FNL
20.09.25	Chelyabinsk - Rodina Moscow	4:0

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