Match Info

FNL - Round 21

Date: 28 November 2025, Friday

Location: Centralnyy (Novorossiysk)

Referee: Sidorin A. (Rus)


	Chernomorets Novorossiysk		Shinnik

	1	X	2
	2.6	2.95	3.3
	2.51	3.08	3.25	Watch
	2.37	2.6	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.27)	2.88 ↓ (3.13)	3.22 ↓ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chernomorets Novorossiysk
37.9%

Draw
32.8%

Shinnik
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

30.5%

27.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

31%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chernomorets Novorossiysk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Shinnik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chernomorets Novorossiysk than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shinnik than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Shinnik Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Shinnik (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
73. Shtepa M. (G) 18. Nikolaev O. 4. Kirsch I. 3. Pliev Z. (C) 13. Puzanov S. 10. Zhigulev I. 7. Antonov A. 8. Tarba Z. 77. Zarypbekov E. 9. Aliev S. 69. Rodionov I.	51. Mitrov T. (G) 4. Bozov N. 44. Kornyushin D. 55. Lystsov V. 5. Malyarov K. 8. Kul R. 10. Shipunov T. 61. Malakhov A. 64. Lanin O. 15. Samoilov D. (C) 9. Stefanovich I.
Substitutes
15. Alikberov T. 74. Kazimov A. 5. Krachkovskii A. 44. Kukharchuk I. 25. Lozhkin V. 32. Matyusha M. (G) 19. Pomeshkin K. 59. Syshchenko M. 81. Tonevitskiy E. 17. Zhilkin G.	77. Gongapshev A. 62. Karpov V. 53. Kotin N. 88. Mironov D. 23. Nafikov V. 11. Porokhov I. 92. Shchelkunov T. 95. Vambolt D. (G)
Coaches
Evseev V.	Buloychik A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Antonov A. ⚽,
29', 2 - 0, Antonov A. ⚽,
41', 2 - 1, Kornyushin D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rodionov I. ↓, Krachkovskii A. ↑,
56', Antonov A. ↓, Kukharchuk I. ↑,
57', Zhigulev I. ↓, Syshchenko M. ↑,
59', Shipunov T. ↓, Gongapshev A. ↑,
81', Samoilov D. ↓, Mironov D. ↑,
82', Aliev S. ↓, Pomeshkin K. ↑,
86', Kukharchuk I. 🟨,
88', Malakhov A. ↓, Porokhov I. ↑,
90+1', Puzanov S. ↓, Zhilkin G. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 13 and 11).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, Shinnik has had a series of home games.

Chernomorets will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chernomorets won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Chernomorets won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Shinnik - the odds 3.48 are the expected chance of winning is 27.44%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chernomorets Novorossiysk
Russian FNL
22.11.25	Arsenal Tula - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:1 ✺
15.11.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Volga Ulyanovsk	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Spartak Kostroma - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	3:1 ✺
25.10.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Chelyabinsk	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWLLT
- Shinnik Yaroslavl
Russian FNL
23.11.25	Shinnik - Sokol Saratov	0:0 ✺
16.11.25	Shinnik - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	4:1 ✺
09.11.25	Rotor - Shinnik	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	Shinnik - Chelyabinsk	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Shinnik - Spartak Kostroma	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
30.08.25	Shinnik - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:0
03.05.25	Shinnik - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:2
03.11.24	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Shinnik	0:1
18.03.24	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Shinnik	1:0
09.09.23	Shinnik - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	2:1

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