The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Comerciantes Belén 58.9%
Draw 25.2%
San Marcos 15.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
50%
26.2%
23.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
48.8%
25.6%
24.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Comerciantes Belén has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Comerciantes Belén's performance.
San Marcos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and San Marcos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comerciantes Belén than the current prediction. (-10.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Comerciantes Belén that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Marcos than the current prediction. (+8.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that San Marcos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Comerciantes Belén - San Marcos Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Silva L. (G) 22. Aburto B. 3. Catashunga J. 19. Dominguez J. 32. Flores A. 10. Lemos M. (C) 2. Mifflin L. 31. Navarro J. 21. Pereira G. 33. Valdeblanquez J. 16. Valverde M.
21. Quincho J. (G) 29. Aragon F. (C) 15. Gadea A. 26. Garcia A. 22. Moyano D. 20. Ramirez S. 2. Reyes J. 19. Rodriguez R. 30. Salas J. 7. Soto J. 16. Ventura F.
Substitutes
6. Arevalo F. 34. Bosmediano J. 27. Ferreira P. 8. Flores L. 26. Guevara R. 73. Montalvo D. (G) 5. Pinedo D. 30. Tuesta J. 18. Vasquez J.
18. Carrillo A. 25. Raffo R. 35. Rivera L. 27. Romero P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (4 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Pereira G. ⚽,
8', Gadea A. 🟨,
13', 2 - 0, Dominguez J. ⚽,
18', 3 - 0, Aburto B. ⚽,
24', 4 - 0, Lemos M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', 5 - 0, Lemos M. ⚽,
64', Mifflin L. ↓, Pinedo D. ↑,
64', Pereira G. ↓, Vasquez J. ↑,
72', Pereira G. ↓, Vasquez J. ↑,
83', 6 - 0, Vasquez J. ⚽,
83', Vasquez J. 🟨,
Preview
Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
San Marcos may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Comerciantes is seen as the favorite.
In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Comerciantes won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).
Including home match between the teams, Comerciantes won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:0.
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Silva L. (G) 
Aburto B. 
Lemos M. (C) 
Valdeblanquez J. 
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