Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Play Offs - Final

Date: 3 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Aracaju)

Referee: Pereira R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, ESPN, Globoplay, Premiere, SBT, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Confiança		Bahia

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.25	2
	4.33	3.4	1.75
	4.45	3.35	1.7
	3.69	3.06	2.11
	8.04	4.87	1.34	Watch
	4.89	3.38	1.67	Watch
	5	3.5	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.83 ↓ (5)	3.54 ↓ (3.6)	1.74 ↑ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Confiança
19.5%

Draw
26.5%

Bahia
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.1%

25.2%

56.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21%

21.7%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Confiança has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bahia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Confiança - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Confiança will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Bahia will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Confiança (votes: 1 - 50%). Bahia (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Confiança (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Confiança (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Bahia (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Allan (G) 2. Weriton 14. Valdo 4. Eduardo Moura 6. Airton 13. Renilson 5. Luiz Otavio 8. Vitinho 7. Ronald Camarao 9. Neto Oliveira 10. Thiago Santos	96. Ronaldo Strada (G) 83. Fred Lippert 3. Gabriel Xavier 5. Rezende 25. Iago Borduchi 26. Nicolas Acevedo 11. Rodrigo 8. Cauly 70. Vitinho 12. Willian Jose 17. Rodriguez L.
Substitutes
11. Breiner C. 18. Dionisio 16. Fabricio 17. Fabricio Pereira 21. Guilherme Teixeira 15. Lucas Souza 3. Maicon 12. Marcos Paulo (G) 19. Matheusinho 22. Nicholas 20. Rafinha	1. Danilo Fernandes (G) 63. David Martins 10. Everton Ribeiro 2. Gilberto 97. Juninho 37. Kayky 46. Luciano Juba 15. Michel Araujo 21. Ramos S. 55. Sidney Duarte 77. Tiago 66. Ze Guilherme
Coaches
Luizinho Vieira	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Rodriguez L. ⚽,
27', 0 - 2, Willian Jose ⚽,
35', Thiago Santos ↓, Breiner C. ↑,
44', Rodrigo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
50', 1 - 2, Ronald Camarao ⚽,
52', Renilson 🟨,
53', 🟨,
54', 1 - 3, Rodrigo ⚽,
63', Vitinho ↓, Tiago ↑,
66', Renilson ↓, Matheusinho ↑,
66', Vitinho ↓, Dionisio ↑,
71', Iago Borduchi ↓, Ze Guilherme ↑,
71', Willian Jose ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
83', Nicolas Acevedo ↓, Sidney Duarte ↑,
83', Cauly ↓, Juninho ↑,
86', 1 - 4, Rezende ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa do Nordeste (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa do Nordeste (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Confiança may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bahia is considered a favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Confiança won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Confiança won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Serie C
30.08.25	Confiança - Retrô Brasil	1:0 ✺
25.08.25	Guarani - Confiança	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.08.25	CS Alagoano - Confiança	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
17.08.25	Confiança - Floresta	1:0 ✺
09.08.25	Ituano - Confiança	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 WLWWW
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
31.08.25	Mirassol - Bahia	5:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
28.08.25	Bahia - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
24.08.25	Bahia - Santos	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.08.25	Bahia - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.25	Corinthians - Bahia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
04.06.25	Confiança - Bahia	2:0
29.07.20	Bahia - Confiança	1:0
07.03.20	Bahia - Confiança	1:0
02.03.16	Confiança - Bahia	0:3
25.02.16	Bahia - Confiança	2:0

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