Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Garay C. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Germany	Sportdigital1+
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Latino, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter


	Corinthians		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.3	7.5	Watch
	1.58	3.6	6.25
	1.62	3.35	6.4	Watch
	1.63	3.57	7.04
	1.62	3.45	6.84	Watch
	1.62	3.2	6.5	Watch
	1.66	3.48	6.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.59)	3.42 ↓ (3.55)	6.74 ↑ (6.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
58.3%

Draw
27.6%

Peñarol de Montevideo
14%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

26.3%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.1%

25.3%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Corinthians - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Users Predictions: Corinthians will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheuzinho 3. Gabriel Paulista 13. Gustavo Henrique 21. Matheus Bidu 49. Andre 14. Raniele 7. Breno Bidon 8. Garro R. (C) 77. Lingard J. 9. Yuri Alberto	29. Aguerre W. (G) 25. Gonzalez M. 22. Alvez F. 3. Lemos M. 93. Laxalt D. 21. Jesus Trindade (C) 32. Umpierrez L. 8. Fernandez N. 5. Remedi E. 23. Togni G. 19. Arezo M.
Substitutes
29. Allan 5. Andre Ramalho 26. Angileri F. 19. Carrillo A. 61. Dieguinho 37. Kaio Cesar 51. Kaue (G) 52. Labyad Z. 20. Milans P. 18. Pedro Raul 23. Pereira M. 11. Vitinho	40. Alvarez B. 77. Angulo L. 18. Barbas G. 36. Barboza B. 9. Batista F. 1. Britos S. (G) 80. Gonzalez F. 11. Hernandez A. 27. Lucas Hernandez 30. Muhlethaler S. 14. Rodriguez K.
Coaches
Diniz F.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Gustavo Henrique ⚽, Garro R. (A),
25', 2 - 0, Lingard J. ⚽, Yuri Alberto (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Togni G. ↓, Angulo L. ↑,
61', Andre ↓, Kaio Cesar ↑,
68', Alvez F. 🟨,
73', Umpierrez L. ↓, Muhlethaler S. ↑,
73', Remedi E. ↓, Rodriguez K. ↑,
76', Jesus Trindade 🟨,
80', Breno Bidon ↓, Carrillo A. ↑,
80', Garro R. ↓, Labyad Z. ↑,
80', Arezo M. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
81', Angulo L. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
88', Yuri Alberto ↓, Vitinho ↑,
88', Lingard J. ↓, Pedro Raul ↑,

Preview

Corinthians is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Peñarol is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Corinthians is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Corinthians: Charles Rigon (Heel Injury) Depay M. (Thigh Injury) Gui Negao (Hamstring Injury) Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Peñarol: Escobar F. (Red Card) Fernandez L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Corinthians: Kayke (Knee Injury)

We predict that Corinthians will win today's game, with odds of 1.63.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Corinthians won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:6. (average 0:3).

Including home match between the teams, Corinthians won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Corinthians: 4.57%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.26	Corinthians - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Vitória Salvador - Corinthians	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.04.26	Corinthians - Independiente Santa Fe	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.04.26	Corinthians - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWTWT
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.04.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:0 ✺
20.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Platense	1:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.04.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
13.05.21	Peñarol de Montevideo - Corinthians	4:0
29.04.21	Corinthians - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:2

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