Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio El Encanto (Mazatlan) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Torres Favela A. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	22:00	Disney+
Brazil	22:00	Disney+
Chile	22:00	Disney+
Colombia	20:00	Disney+
Mexico	19:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Peru	20:00	Disney+
Uruguay	22:00	Disney+
Venezuela	21:00	Disney+


	Dorados		Cruz Azul Hidalgo

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.68	3.70	3.80
	1.76	3.70	3.75	Watch
	1.73	4.36	4.20
	1.71	4.26	4.11	Watch
	1.68	4.30	4.15
	1.74	4.08	3.98	Watch
	1.74	3.85	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.73)	4.04 ↑ (3.97)	3.96 ↓ (3.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dorados
53.8%

Draw
22.9%

Cruz Azul Hidalgo
23.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

53.4%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.6%

21.7%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dorados has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

The chances for Cruz Azul Hidalgo have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dorados than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruz Azul Hidalgo than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cruz Azul Hidalgo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Dorados - Cruz Azul Hidalgo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Dorados (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Castro J. (G) 20. Osuna D. 26. Gutierrez E. (C) 4. Franco R. 18. Cervantes S. 13. Padilla G. 32. Castro C. 11. Contreras F. 17. Pena F. 9. Rengifo J. 29. Coronel O.	13. Rodriguez R. (G) 70. Silva I. 67. Mendoza J. 66. Suarez J. (C) 47. De Los Rios S. 50. Gonzalez K. 58. Sanchez E. 57. Valdez D. 63. Saavedra Nevarez A. A. 196. Ramírez I. 27. Gamboa B.
Coaches
Orozco L.	Landazabal E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Gamboa B. ⚽, Valdez D. (A),
10', Gonzalez K. 🟨,
31', Gutierrez E. 🟨,
38', Gamboa B. 🟨,
40', 0 - 2, Sanchez E. ⚽, Gamboa B. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Coronel O. ↓, Vargas L. ↑,
46', Padilla G. ↓, Guajardo D. ↑,
46', Gutierrez E. ↓, Leyva C. ↑,
47', Guajardo D. 🟨,
59', Gonzalez K. ↓, Valdivia C. ↑,
59', Saavedra Nevarez A. A. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
59', Valdez D. ↓, Samano Salgado F. ↑,
61', Contreras F. ↓, Ordorica B. ↑,
63', 1 - 2, Pena F. ⚽, Cervantes S. (A),
66', Guajardo D. ↓, Sanchez B. ↑,
70', Ramírez I. ↓, Leon C. ↑,
86', Gamboa B. ↓, Villegas E. ↑,
90+1', Sanchez E. 🟨,
90+1', Ordorica B. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 3, Valdivia C. ⚽, De Los Rios S. (A),
90+8', Castro C. 🟨,

Preview

A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 11th and 15th).

Dorados has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Cruz Azul Hidalgo is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Cruz Azul Hidalgo could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Dorados for this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Dorados has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:2 (averaging 0.7:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Dorados against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 2:1 goals (averaging 1:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Dorados de Sinaloa	14	4	4	6	23:29	-6	16
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	14	3	5	6	17:22	-5	14

Outrights of Mexican Liga de Expansion MX for now

Dorados de Sinaloa: 3.19% Cruz Azul Hidalgo: 0.66%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dorados de Sinaloa
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
04.10.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Dorados	6:3 ✺
26.09.26	Dorados - Alacranes de Durango	0:1 ✺
19.09.26	Jaiba Brava - Dorados	1:1 ✺
15.09.26	Dorados - Cancún	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Dorados - Tapatío	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LLTTW
- Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
02.10.26	Correcaminos UAT - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	0:0 ✺
26.09.26	Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Leones Negros UdeG	1:2 ✺
17.09.26	Alacranes de Durango - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	2:0 ✺
11.09.26	Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Piratas de Veracruz	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Cancún - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
12.04.14	Dorados - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1:1
10.11.13	Cruz Azul Hidalgo - Dorados	1:0
12.01.13	Dorados - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1:0

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