Match Info

Date: 19 April 2021, Monday


	Covilhã		Arouca

	1	X	2
	3.3	2.9	2.3	Watch
	2.95	2.9	2.4
	3.1	2.75	2.4
	3.15	2.85	2.42
	3.43	2.91	2.51
	3.25	2.88	2.4
	3.06	2.99	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↑ (2.98)	2.88 ↓ (2.92)	2.41 ↓ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covilhã
29.2%

Draw
32.2%

Arouca
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

31.7%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.1%

24.6%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covilhã has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Covilhã that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arouca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	32.1%	53.6%

Covilhã - Arouca Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Covilhã will win (votes: 4 - 14.3%). Arouca will win (votes: 15 - 53.6%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 32.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arouca: 35.1% – 72.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 13 and 6).

Recent matches Covilhã is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Arouca is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Covilhã won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Covilhã won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 2
11.04.21	Chaves - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
02.04.21	Covilhã - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
28.03.21	Covilhã - Casa Pia	0:0 ✺
21.03.21	Porto B - Covilhã	2:1 ✺
16.03.21	Covilhã - Oliveirense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LTTLW
- FC Arouca
Portuguese Liga 2
11.04.21	Arouca - Oliveirense	3:0 ✺
03.04.21	Porto B - Arouca	0:3 ✺
27.03.21	Arouca - Feirense	1:0 ✺
21.03.21	Vizela - Arouca	1:1 ✺
15.03.21	Arouca - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
20.12.20	Arouca - Covilhã	1:0
14.04.19	Arouca - Covilhã	1:1
16.12.18	Covilhã - Arouca	2:2
10.03.18	Arouca - Covilhã	2:2
30.09.17	Covilhã - Arouca	1:0
23.09.12	Covilhã - Arouca	1:1
Portuguese League Cup
28.07.12	Covilhã - Arouca	N/A

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