Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 34

Date: 25 February 2023, Saturday

Location: The People’s Pension Stadium (Crawley)

Referee: Howard P. (Eng)


	Crawley Town		Carlisle United

	1	X	2
	4	3.25	2
	3.6	3.3	2
	3.85	3.4	1.95
	3.92	3.41	2.06
	3.8	3.25	2
	3.84	3.4	1.99	Watch
	3.6	3.25	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↑ (3.5)	3.32 ↑ (3.2)	2 ↓ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crawley Town
24.7%

Draw
28.3%

Carlisle United
47%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.6%

29.1%

44.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.2%

28.7%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crawley Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	16.7%	41.7%

Crawley Town - Carlisle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Crawley will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Carlisle will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Crawley: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Crawley has the most likely position - 22 (22.02%), has project points - 47, has currently - 26, has a chance of relegated (16%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Carlisle has the most likely position - 5 (13.89%), has project points - 75, has currently - 55, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (51%), has a chance of promoted (32%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

This event has small quality 10, importance 40, small match rating 25. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Crawley won 1.

Crawley is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Carlisle is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Carlisle have a series of home games.

Carlisle will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 22 head-to-head matches Crawley won 2 matches, drawn 10 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 19-32.

Including matches at home between the teams Crawley won 1 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8-13.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crawley Town
English League Two
18.02.23	Leyton Orient - Crawley Town	1:0 ✺
14.02.23	Stockport County - Crawley Town	2:1 ✺
11.02.23	Crawley Town - Crewe Alexandra	2:2 ✺
04.02.23	Gillingham - Crawley Town	1:0 ✺
28.01.23	Crawley Town - Salford City	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLTLW
- Carlisle United
English League Two
18.02.23	Carlisle United - Colchester United	1:0 ✺
14.02.23	Carlisle United - Mansfield Town	0:4 ✺
11.02.23	AFC Wimbledon - Carlisle United	0:0 ✺
04.02.23	Carlisle United - Harrogate Town	0:1 ✺
31.01.23	Carlisle United - Barrow	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
30.07.22	Carlisle United - Crawley Town	1:0
15.01.22	Carlisle United - Crawley Town	1:1
11.09.21	Crawley Town - Carlisle United	2:1
30.03.21	Carlisle United - Crawley Town	2:0
21.11.20	Crawley Town - Carlisle United	0:3
15.02.20	Crawley Town - Carlisle United	0:0
03.08.19	Carlisle United - Crawley Town	2:1

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