The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Carlisle United 44.2%
Draw 30%
Mansfield Town 25.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
38.8%
30.1%
31.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
39.3%
29.7%
30.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Carlisle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carlisle United's performance.
Mansfield Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mansfield Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-4.9%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mansfield Town than the current prediction. (+4.9%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
53.3%
33.3%
13.3%
Carlisle United - Mansfield Town Predictions
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Carlisle will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Mansfield will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for Carlisle: 28.1% – 78.5%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs)).
Carlisle has the most likely position - 3 (14.93%), has project points - 76, has currently - 52, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (49%), has a chance of promoted (41%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).
Mansfield has the most likely position - 7 (9.95%), has project points - 70, has currently - 46, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (35%), has a chance of promoted (16%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
This event has small quality15, importance48, match rating31. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 2.
Carlisle is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Recent matches Mansfield is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Mansfield could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Recently Mansfield have a series of home games.
Carlisle will have a mini benefit in this match.
Last 18 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 23-27.
Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 16-13.
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