Match Info

Date: 19 March 2022, Saturday


	Crewe Alexandra		Bolton Wanderers

	1	X	2
	5.5	4	1.61
	5.25	3.8	1.61
	6	4	1.58
	5.4	3.95	1.56
	5.63	4.03	1.64
	5.5	3.9	1.57
	5.65	4.2	1.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.56 ↑ (5.03)	3.98 ↑ (3.82)	1.6 ↓ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crewe Alexandra
17%

Draw
23.8%

Bolton Wanderers
59.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.9%

24.9%

56.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

15.1%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crewe Alexandra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (+14.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Crewe Alexandra, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (-25%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bolton Wanderers, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Crewe Alexandra - Bolton Wanderers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 11).

Crewe has the most likely position - 24 (70.81%), has project points - 32, has currently - 25, has a very good chance of relegated (>99%), has not chance of prom. playoffs.

Bolton has the most likely position - 11 (46.4%), has project points - 69, has currently - 55, has not chance of relegated, has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has not chance of win league.

This event has small quality 11, very small importance 3, very small match rating 7. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Crewe is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Bolton is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bolton could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Bolton is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Crewe won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 9-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Crewe won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crewe Alexandra
English League One
15.03.22	Crewe Alexandra - Wigan Athletic	0:2 ✺
12.03.22	Sunderland - Crewe Alexandra	2:0 ✺
08.03.22	Crewe Alexandra - Portsmouth	1:3 ✺
05.03.22	Crewe Alexandra - Wycombe Wanderers	1:3 ✺
26.02.22	Cheltenham Town - Crewe Alexandra	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LLLLW
- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
12.03.22	Bolton Wanderers - Plymouth Argyle	0:1 ✺
08.03.22	Bolton Wanderers - Morecambe	1:1 ✺
05.03.22	Gillingham - Bolton Wanderers	0:3 ✺
26.02.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Bolton Wanderers	2:0 ✺
22.02.22	Bolton Wanderers - Lincoln City	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
12.11.21	Bolton Wanderers - Crewe Alexandra	2:0
English FA Cup
07.11.20	Bolton Wanderers - Crewe Alexandra	2:3
English EFL Trophy
08.09.20	Bolton Wanderers - Crewe Alexandra	2:3
English League Cup
09.08.17	Crewe Alexandra - Bolton Wanderers	1:2
26.08.14	Crewe Alexandra - Bolton Wanderers	2:3 ET
Club Friendly
28.07.12	Crewe Alexandra - Bolton Wanderers	N/A

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