Match Info

Date: 5 March 2022, Saturday


	Gillingham		Bolton Wanderers

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.4	2.15
	3.4	3.2	2.15
	3.6	3.3	2.15
	3.45	3.15	2.12
	3.62	3.36	2.18
	3.3	3.3	2.15
	3.52	3.5	2.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.48 ↑ (3.27)	3.32 ↓ (3.38)	2.16 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gillingham
27.3%

Draw
28.7%

Bolton Wanderers
44.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

28.1%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

20.9%

57.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gillingham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Bolton Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gillingham that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bolton Wanderers than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bolton Wanderers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Gillingham - Bolton Wanderers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Gillingham has the most likely position - 22 (25.84%), has project points - 41, has currently - 30, has a good chance of relegated (80%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has not chance of win league.

Bolton has the most likely position - 11 (22%), has project points - 70, has currently - 51, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (8%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 15, small importance 27, small match rating 21. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Two teams are playing changeable.

Bolton will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Gillingham won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Gillingham won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gillingham FC
English League One
26.02.22	Lincoln City - Gillingham	0:2 ✺
22.02.22	Gillingham - AFC Wimbledon	0:0 ✺
19.02.22	Gillingham - Plymouth Argyle	0:2 ✺
12.02.22	Morecambe - Gillingham	1:1 ✺
08.02.22	Gillingham - Cambridge United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WTLTW
- Bolton Wanderers
English League One
26.02.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Bolton Wanderers	2:0 ✺
22.02.22	Bolton Wanderers - Lincoln City	3:1 ✺
19.02.22	Bolton Wanderers - AFC Wimbledon	4:0 ✺
15.02.22	Burton Albion - Bolton Wanderers	3:1 ✺
12.02.22	Oxford United - Bolton Wanderers	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
23.10.21	Bolton Wanderers - Gillingham	2:2
31.08.19	Gillingham - Bolton Wanderers	5:0
14.03.17	Gillingham - Bolton Wanderers	0:4
12.12.16	Bolton Wanderers - Gillingham	4:0

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