Match Info

Date: 8 March 2022, Tuesday


	Crewe Alexandra		Portsmouth

	1	X	2
	6	3.8	1.6
	5.25	3.8	1.62
	5	3.95	1.67
	5.2	3.75	1.6
	5.8	4.05	1.62
	5	3.7	1.66
	5.75	4.15	1.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.43 ↑ (3.64)	3.89 ↑ (3.52)	1.63 ↓ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crewe Alexandra
17.5%

Draw
24.4%

Portsmouth
58.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.1%

27%

46.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.2%

20.9%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crewe Alexandra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Crewe Alexandra's form might have worsened.

Portsmouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Portsmouth's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.9%	4.2%	86.9%

Crewe Alexandra - Portsmouth Predictions

Users Predictions: Portsmouth will win (166 of 191 users predict this - 86.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.13% – 91.69%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 11).

Crewe has the most likely position - 24 (55.28%), has project points - 33, has currently - 22, has a very good chance of relegated (98%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has not chance of win league.

Portsmouth has the most likely position - 11 (14.44%), has project points - 68, has currently - 44, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (11%), has a very small chance of promoted (4%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 12, small importance 11, small match rating 12. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Crewe won 1.

Crewe has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Portsmouth is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Crewe could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Portsmouth is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Crewe won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 3-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Crewe won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crewe Alexandra
English League One
05.03.22	Crewe Alexandra - Wycombe Wanderers	1:3 ✺
26.02.22	Cheltenham Town - Crewe Alexandra	1:2 ✺
22.02.22	Crewe Alexandra - Oxford United	0:1 ✺
15.02.22	Wigan Athletic - Crewe Alexandra	2:0 ✺
12.02.22	Accrington Stanley - Crewe Alexandra	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWLLL
- Portsmouth FC
English League One
05.03.22	Portsmouth - Accrington Stanley	4:0 ✺
01.03.22	Portsmouth - Oxford United	3:2 ✺
26.02.22	Portsmouth - Fleetwood Town	3:3 ✺
22.02.22	Shrewsbury Town - Portsmouth	1:2 ✺
12.02.22	Portsmouth - Doncaster Rovers	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
14.08.21	Portsmouth - Crewe Alexandra	2:0
13.04.21	Crewe Alexandra - Portsmouth	0:0
21.11.20	Portsmouth - Crewe Alexandra	4:1
English League Two
04.03.17	Portsmouth - Crewe Alexandra	0:1
13.08.16	Crewe Alexandra - Portsmouth	0:0
English League One
02.03.13	Crewe Alexandra - Portsmouth	1:2
13.10.12	Portsmouth - Crewe Alexandra	2:0

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