Match Info

Date: 22 February 2022, Tuesday


	Crewe Alexandra		Oxford United

	1	X	2
	5.5	4.2	1.57
	5.25	4.33	1.55
	5.75	4	1.6
	5	4.2	1.56
	5.38	4.41	1.6
	5.25	4	1.6
	5.35	4.4	1.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.35 ↑ (4.09)	4.22 ↑ (3.53)	1.59 ↓ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Crewe Alexandra
17.7%

Draw
22.5%

Oxford United
59.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.8%

26.4%

50.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.8%

20.6%

65%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crewe Alexandra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Crewe Alexandra's form might have worsened.

Oxford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Oxford United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Oxford United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.3%	5.2%	84.5%

Crewe Alexandra - Oxford United Predictions

Users Predictions: Oxford United will win (82 of 97 users predict this - 84.54%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.35% – 91.73%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs)).

Crewe has the most likely position - 24 (51.9%), has project points - 33, has currently - 22, has a very good chance of relegated (97%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has not chance of win league.

Oxford has the most likely position - 4 (15.92%), has project points - 78, has currently - 56, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (59%), has a chance of promoted (22%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 13, small importance 22, small match rating 18. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Crewe has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Oxford is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Crewe could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Oxford is a favorite.

Recent matches Oxford is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Last 4 head-to-head matches Crewe won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Crewe won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Crewe Alexandra
English League One
15.02.22	Wigan Athletic - Crewe Alexandra	2:0 ✺
12.02.22	Accrington Stanley - Crewe Alexandra	4:1 ✺
08.02.22	Crewe Alexandra - Plymouth Argyle	1:4 ✺
01.02.22	Gillingham - Crewe Alexandra	1:0 ✺
29.01.22	Crewe Alexandra - Rotherham United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Oxford United
English League One
19.02.22	Charlton Athletic - Oxford United	0:4 ✺
12.02.22	Oxford United - Bolton Wanderers	2:3 ✺
08.02.22	Accrington Stanley - Oxford United	2:0 ✺
05.02.22	Oxford United - Portsmouth	3:2 ✺
01.02.22	Wigan Athletic - Oxford United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
17.08.21	Oxford United - Crewe Alexandra	1:0
10.04.21	Crewe Alexandra - Oxford United	0:6
17.11.20	Oxford United - Crewe Alexandra	0:2

Upcoming Matches