Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A Betano - Round 36

Date: 30 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Heriberto Hülse (Criciúma)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2
Peru	L1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Spain	Gol Stadium
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3
World	El Canal del Futbol app, Fanatiz


	Criciúma		Corinthians

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.3	2.1	Watch
	3.5	3.25	2.15
	3.4	3.3	2.15	Watch
	3.66	3.34	2.17
	3.52	3.35	2.14	Watch
	3	3.25	2.3
	3.44	3.44	2.12	Watch
	3.4	3.3	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.44 ↑ (2.8)	3.32 ↑ (3.2)	2.16 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Criciúma
27.5%

Draw
28.6%

Corinthians
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

29.2%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

29.6%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Criciúma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Criciúma's form might have worsened.

Corinthians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Corinthians's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Criciúma, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Corinthians, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	0%	88.9%

Criciúma - Corinthians Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Criciúma will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Corinthians will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Corinthians: 68.4% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gustavo (G) 20. Dudu 3. Rodrigo (C) 29. Figueiredo T. 22. Marcelo Hermes 88. Gustavo Barreto 8. Newton 6. Ronald Lopes 7. Fellipe Mateus 11. Bolasie Y. 9. Felipe Vizeu	1. Hugo Souza (C) 2. Matheus Franca 5. Ramalho A. 13. Gustavo Henrique 21. Matheus Bidu 14. Raniele 27. Breno Bidon 19. Carrillo A. 10. Garro R. 94. Depay M. 9. Yuri Alberto
Substitutes
25. Alisson (G) 45. Arthur Caike 27. Claudinho 50. Jhonata Robert 13. Jonathan 10. Marquinhos Gabriel 17. Matheusinho 85. Patrick de Paula 28. Pedro Rocha 14. Trauco M. 33. Walisson Maia 77. Werik Popo	80. Alex Santana 11. Angel Romero 25. Caca 8. Charles 23. Fagner 46. Hugo 77. Igor Coronado 70. Martinez J. 32. Matheus Donelli (G) 16. Pedro Henrique 20. Pedro Raul 43. Talles Magno
Coaches
Claudio Tencati	Diaz R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Bolasie Y. ⚽, Dudu (A),
38', 2 - 0, Bolasie Y. ⚽, Gustavo Barreto (A),
2nd Half (0 - 4)
56', Newton 🟨,
62', 2 - 1, Garro R. ⚽, Matheus Bidu (A),
63', Raniele ↓, Talles Magno ↑,
65', 2 - 2, Matheus Bidu ⚽, Garro R. (A),
66', Felipe Vizeu ↓, Pedro Rocha ↑,
66', Fellipe Mateus ↓, Trauco M. ↑,
74', Gustavo Barreto ↓, Matheusinho ↑,
74', Carrillo A. ↓, Alex Santana ↑,
74', Breno Bidon ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
75', Dudu ↓, Claudinho ↑,
76', Martinez J. 🟨,
77', Rodrigo 🟨,
77', Matheus Franca 🟨,
81', Gustavo Henrique 🟨,
82', Matheus Bidu ↓, Hugo ↑,
82', Depay M. ↓, Angel Romero ↑,
83', 2 - 3, Yuri Alberto ⚽, Angel Romero (A),
85', Ronald Lopes ↓, Arthur Caike ↑,
90+3', 2 - 4, Yuri Alberto ⚽, Angel Romero (A),

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

Criciúma is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Corinthians is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Corinthians will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Corinthians: Hernandez H. (Injury) Palacios D. (Injury) Ruan Oliveira (Knee Injury) Ryan (Injury) Torres F. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Corinthians: Maycon (Injury) Yuri Alberto (Thigh Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Criciúma won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 2:7 (average 0.4:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Criciúma won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:2 (average 0:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie A
26.11.24	Fluminense - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
20.11.24	Criciúma - Vitória Salvador	0:1 ✺
09.11.24	Cruzeiro - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
05.11.24	Internacional RS - Criciúma	2:0 ✺
26.10.24	Criciúma - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TLLLT
- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
24.11.24	Corinthians - Vasco da Gama	3:1 ✺
20.11.24	Corinthians - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
09.11.24	Vitória Salvador - Corinthians	1:2 ✺
04.11.24	Corinthians - Palmeiras	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
31.10.24	Racing - Corinthians	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
16.07.24	Corinthians - Criciúma	2:1
06.12.14	Corinthians - Criciúma	2:1
07.09.14	Criciúma - Corinthians	0:0
19.10.13	Corinthians - Criciúma	1:0
04.08.13	Criciúma - Corinthians	0:2

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