Match Info

Serie B - Round 16

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Heriberto Hülse (Criciúma)

Referee: Vasconcelos B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Criciúma		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.30	4.50	Watch
	1.85	3.10	4.10
	1.90	3.35	4.00
	1.90	3.38	4.60
	2	3.21	3.87	Watch
	1.87	3.30	4.50
	1.85	3.29	4.48	Watch
	1.87	3.25	4.30
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 (1.88)	3.27 ↓ (3.4)	4.29 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Criciúma
49.7%

Draw
28.6%

Sport Recife
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.7%

27.5%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

26.3%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Criciúma have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

The ML Model estimate for Sport Recife aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	7.7%	7.7%

Criciúma - Sport Recife Predictions

Users Predictions: Criciúma will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Airton (G) 3. Rodrigo (C) 4. Luciano Castan 37. Cesar Martins 97. Willean Lepo 50. Thiaguinho 8. Gui Lobo 22. Marcelo Hermes 7. Fellipe Mateus 13. Waguininho 91. Otero R.	26. Thiago Couto (G) 3. Marcelo Ajul 5. Benevenuto (C) 4. Ze Marcos 13. Madson 48. Pedro Martins 6. Biel Fonseca 60. Felipinho 30. Chrystian Barletta 9. Pedro Perotti 10. de Pena Carlos
Substitutes
1. Alisson (G) 34. Bruno Alves 88. Caue Santos 77. Diego Goncalves 31. Hiago Alves 41. Jean Irmer 10. Jhonata Robert 21. Joao Carlos 17. Lucas Bugs 70. Pedro Santos (G) 11. Romarinho 43. Ruan Carvalho	68. Augusto 35. Clayson 96. Edson Lucas 47. Fabio Matheus 11. Gustavo Maia 28. Habraao 1. Halls (G) 95. Iury Castilho 31. Marlon Douglas 7. Yago Felipe 23. Ze Gabriel
Coaches
Eduardo Baptista	Gilmar Pozzo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Thiaguinho 🟨,
29', 1 - 0, Waguininho ⚽,
32', Waguininho 🟨,
33', Benevenuto 🟨,
36', Pedro Martins 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Thiaguinho ↓, Jean Irmer ↑,
46', Pedro Martins ↓, Fabio Matheus ↑,
46', de Pena Carlos ↓, Iury Castilho ↑,
51', Chrystian Barletta 🟨,
57', Cesar Martins 🟨,
59', Jean Irmer 🟨,
63', Cesar Martins ↓, Bruno Alves ↑,
63', Otero R. ↓, Jhonata Robert ↑,
77', Marcelo Ajul ↓, Marlon Douglas ↑,
79', Waguininho ↓, Romarinho ↑,
83', Biel Fonseca ↓, Yago Felipe ↑,
83', Madson ↓, Augusto ↑,
90+3', Gui Lobo ↓, Caue Santos ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 1.

Criciúma has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Recife has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Criciúma might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Criciúma: Eduardo (Yellow Cards) Heitor Roca (Inactive) Octavio Henrique (Muscle Injury) Yuri Tanque (Achilles Tendon Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Criciúma won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33:27	6	53
8	Sport Recife	32	13	11	8	44:34	10	50

Last Results with these Odds

Criciúma - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 49.71%, but this team recently wins 82% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
27.06.26	Criciúma - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
23.06.26	América Mineiro - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
15.06.26	Criciúma - Ceará	1:1 ✺
06.06.26	Criciúma - Londrina	1:0 ✺
30.05.26	Avaí - Criciúma	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWTWW
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie B
28.06.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
18.06.26	Sport Recife - Atlético Goianiense	1:1 ✺
14.06.26	São Bernardo - Sport Recife	0:0 ✺
10.06.26	Sport Recife - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
30.05.26	Sport Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
09.09.23	Sport Recife - Criciúma	3:3
24.05.23	Criciúma - Sport Recife	1:0
02.08.22	Sport Recife - Criciúma	1:1
23.04.22	Criciúma - Sport Recife	1:1
09.11.19	Sport Recife - Criciúma	1:0
11.08.19	Criciúma - Sport Recife	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
29.11.14	Criciúma - Sport Recife	2:2

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