The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Crotone 40.8%
Draw 28.3%
Audace Cerignola 30.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
32.4%
30.5%
37.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
31.8%
29.9%
37.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Crotone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Crotone's performance.
Audace Cerignola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Audace Cerignola might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crotone than the current prediction. (-9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Crotone that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Audace Cerignola than the current prediction. (+7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Audace Cerignola could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Crotone - Audace Cerignola Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Pio Martino A. (G) 63. Veltri A. 13. Armini N. (C) 26. Tanco G. J. 25. Guerra W. 99. Crapisto F. 80. Grosso F. 37. Barcella K. 11. Brignola E. 10. Musso A. 96. Zunno M.
22. Viola A. (G) 55. Cocorocchio M. 23. Gasbarro A. (C) 24. Romano A. 37. Silvestro A. 58. Cretella C. 68. Sellaf M. 4. Vitale G. 7. Vinciguerra A. 10. D'Orazio L. 14. Padula C.
Substitutes
74. Bashi E. 19. Feola W. 23. Groppelli F. 22. Lucano A. (G) 44. Pierangeli L. 31. Rodriguez P. 83. Ruggiero Z. 17. Russo D. 5. Russo L. 7. Stauciuc B. 79. Terrasi G. 18. Tordini M. 8. Torres I.
17. Amiranda F. 21. Casarosa M. 18. Guaragna C. 19. Iorio A. 2. Kurti A. 44. Miranda K. 8. Moreso O. 20. Nanula M. 99. Parlato C. 33. Perlingieri M. 77. Pinotti M. 80. Seminari G. 1. Vailati A. (G) 11. Volpe G.
Coaches
Greco L.
Catalano R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 3)
20', Brignola E. 🟨,
21', 0 - 1, Vitale G. ⚽, Cretella C. (A),
25', Brignola E. ↓, Ruggiero Z. ↑,
33', Sellaf M. 🟨,
44', 0 - 2, D'Orazio L. (Penalty Awarded),
45+2', 0 - 3, Padula C. ⚽,
45+3', 1 - 3, Musso A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sellaf M. ↓, Moreso O. ↑,
46', Guerra W. ↓, Feola W. ↑,
55', Musso A. 🟨,
67', Grosso F. 🟨,
67', Moreso O. 🟨,
73', Barcella K. 🟨,
73', Barcella K. ↓, Tordini M. ↑,
74', D'Orazio L. ↓, Volpe G. ↑,
74', Cretella C. ↓, Miranda K. ↑,
77', 2 - 3, Tanco G. J. ⚽,
80', Crapisto F. 🟨,
82', Silvestro A. ↓, Kurti A. ↑,
83', Romano A. 🟨,
85', Zunno M. ↓, Stauciuc B. ↑,
88', Vinciguerra A. 🟨,
90+1', Vinciguerra A. ↓, Nanula M. ↑,
Preview
A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 20th in the Relegation and 9th in the Promotion - Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs (1/32 - finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Crotone won 2.
Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, Crotone has recorded 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 11:12 (averaging 1.2:1.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Crotone against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 7:5 goals (averaging 1.4:1 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
5
Audace Cerignola
9
4
2
3
14:9
5
14
20
Crotone
9
1
3
5
10:15
-5
0
Last Results with these Odds
Crotone - the odds 2.8 are the expected chance of winning is 32.43%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.
Italy
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Pio Martino A. (G) 
Tanco G. J. 
Bashi E. 
Stauciuc B. 
Torres I. 
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