Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 27

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Fanatiz
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Usa	Fanatiz


	Cruzeiro		Sport Recife

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.75	6.5	Watch
	1.43	4.5	7.5
	1.58	3.7	5.9
	1.6	3.97	6.65
	1.50	4.02	6.82	Watch
	1.58	4	6.33	Watch
	1.39	4.5	7.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.33)	4.06 ↓ (4.94)	6.79 ↓ (10.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruzeiro
62.6%

Draw
23.4%

Sport Recife
14%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.4%

19.2%

9.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.3%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruzeiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cruzeiro's form might have worsened.

Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cruzeiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-5%)

Cruzeiro - Sport Recife Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruzeiro (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cassio (G) 2. Kaua Moraes 34. Jonathan Jesus 25. Villalba L. 6. Kaiki 16. Lucas Silva (C) 8. Matheus Henrique 21. Eduardo 10. Matheus Pereira 99. Arroyo K. 9. Gabriel Barbosa	1. Gabriel (G) 13. Aderlan 15. Rafael Thyere (C) 40. Ramon Menezes 36. Luan Candido 58. Ze Lucas 14. Rivera C. 17. Matheusinho 19. Hyoran 18. Derik Lacerda 11. Romarinho
Substitutes
11. Bolasie Y. 88. Christian 14. Gamarra M. 77. Japa 43. Joao Marcelo 36. Kaua Prates 51. Lamounier V. (G) 41. Leo Aragao (G) 7. Marquinhos 20. Ryan Guilherme 17. Sinisterra L. 5. Walace	42. Adriano Sousa (G) 20. Atencio R. 22. Caique Franca (G) 30. Chrystian Barletta 16. Igor Carius 38. Leo Pereira 21. Lucas Kal 27. Oliveira S. 92. Pablo 28. Pedro Augusto 9. Ramirez I. 6. Silva J.
Coaches
Jardim L.	Daniel Paulista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', Matheus Henrique ↓, Christian ↑,
21', Hyoran 🟨,
26', Arroyo K. 🟨,
33', Aderlan 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Derik Lacerda ⚽, Matheusinho (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Romarinho ↓, Igor Carius ↑,
55', Lucas Silva ↓, Joao Marcelo ↑,
55', Jonathan Jesus ↓, Sinisterra L. ↑,
59', 1 - 1, Gabriel Barbosa ⚽, Matheus Pereira (A),
66', Hyoran ↓, Atencio R. ↑,
79', Kaua Moraes ↓, Marquinhos ↑,
79', Christian ↓, Ryan Guilherme ↑,
86', Ze Lucas ↓, Pedro Augusto ↑,
86', Matheusinho ↓, Chrystian Barletta ↑,
90+9', Rivera C. ↓, Lucas Kal ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 3.

Cruzeiro is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Recife has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cruzeiro is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Cruzeiro: Fabricio Bruno (Yellow Cards) Fagner (Broken Leg) Janderson (Knee Injury) Jonathan Jesus (Inactive) Kaio Jorge (Yellow Cards) Romero L. (Yellow Cards) Wanderson (Inactive) William Furtado (Red Card)

There will not play in Recife: Denis (Knee Injury) Hereda (Health problems) Oliveira S. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Recife: Ze Roberto (Knee Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Cruzeiro won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:9. (average 1.3:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Cruzeiro won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:3. (average 1.7:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
02.10.25	Flamengo - Cruzeiro	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Vasco da Gama - Cruzeiro	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Cruzeiro - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
15.09.25	Bahia - Cruzeiro	1:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
11.09.25	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 TLWWW
- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A
01.10.25	Sport Recife - Fluminense	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	Sport Recife - Corinthians	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Sport Recife	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Sport Recife - Vasco da Gama	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
11.05.25	Sport Recife - Cruzeiro	0:4
Brazilian Serie B
09.10.22	Sport Recife - Cruzeiro	3:1
28.06.22	Cruzeiro - Sport Recife	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
08.09.18	Sport Recife - Cruzeiro	0:0
13.05.18	Cruzeiro - Sport Recife	2:0
20.08.17	Cruzeiro - Sport Recife	2:0
21.05.17	Sport Recife - Cruzeiro	1:1

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