The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Curicó Unido 38%
Draw 26.4%
San Marcos de Arica 35.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
34.1%
28.5%
37.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
34.2%
28.6%
37.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Curicó Unido has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)
San Marcos de Arica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Curicó Unido than the current prediction. (-3.8%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Marcos de Arica than the current prediction. (+1.6%)
Curicó Unido - San Marcos de Arica Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
22. Tello D. (G) 14. Medina C. 4. Colombo R. 40. Oliver F. 19. de La Fuente R. (C) 15. Sanhueza H. 21. Ormeno E. 17. Inostroza B. 7. Fernandez N. 13. Bustamante C. 25. Lopes Acevedo M.
13. Tapia B. (G) 15. Cubillos G. 23. Cazula A. 5. Rivera J. 3. Aguila Bastias Y. M. 26. Rencoret C. (C) 14. Guerra C. 22. Donadell N. 10. Sagredo B. 18. Galleguillos A. 9. Melivilu Fuentes C.
Substitutes
27. Alfaro J. 11. Aliaga I. 10. Retamales J. 16. Riveros R. 8. Romo J. 3. Sarria G. 1. Vergara T. (G)
20. Abalos A. 4. Iturra M. 19. Maidana A. 17. Moya Godoy M. 16. Reyes G. 1. Saracho R. (G) 11. Zedan N.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Cazula A. 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Fernandez N. ⚽,
42', Cubillos G. ↓, Maidana A. ↑,
45+4', Maidana A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', 1 - 1, Melivilu Fuentes C. ⚽,
58', Inostroza B. ↓, Retamales J. ↑,
60', Guerra C. 🟨,
63', Colombo R. 🟨,
66', 1 - 2, Donadell N. ⚽,
73', de La Fuente R. 🟨,
75', Sagredo B. ↓, Abalos A. ↑,
76', Galleguillos A. ↓, Reyes G. ↑,
76', Lopes Acevedo M. ↓, Alfaro J. ↑,
76', Ormeno E. ↓, Romo J. ↑,
76', Bustamante C. ↓, Aliaga I. ↑,
83', Romo J. 🟨,
84', Fernandez N. ↓, Riveros R. ↑,
87', Donadell N. ↓, Iturra M. ↑,
87', Melivilu Fuentes C. ↓, Zedan N. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 2, Alfaro J. ⚽,
90+7', Aliaga I. 🟨,
Preview
An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 13 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Primera (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Curicó Unido won 5.
Curicó Unido has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
San Marcos de Arica is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
Curicó Unido may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Curicó Unido won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:7. (average 2.4:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Curicó Unido won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2.7:1).
Chile
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Tello D. (G) 
Medina C. 
Zedan N. 
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