Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 5 April 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Referee: Ospina J. (Col)


	Danubio		Emelec

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.25	2.8	Watch
	2.5	3	2.87
	2.45	3.15	2.95
	2.65	3	2.99
	2.5	2.9	2.8
	2.51	3.14	2.91	Watch
	2.5	3.05	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.21)	3.07 ↑ (3.04)	2.88 ↓ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Danubio
37.1%

Draw
30.5%

Emelec
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

30.3%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

28.8%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Danubio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Emelec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Danubio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emelec than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Emelec, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	50%	25%

Danubio - Emelec Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Danubio will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Emelec will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Danubio is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Emelec is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Danubio could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
31.03.23	River Plate Montevideo - Danubio	2:1 ✺
25.03.23	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	4:0 ✺
19.03.23	Boston River - Danubio	3:3 ✺
12.03.23	Danubio - Cerro	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.03.23	Defensor Sporting - Danubio	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWTWW
- Emelec
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.04.23	Delfín - Emelec	3:2 ✺
19.03.23	Emelec - Técnico Universitario	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.03.23	Emelec - Deportivo Cuenca	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
05.03.23	Orense - Emelec	2:1 ✺
26.02.23	Emelec - Libertad Loja	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWWLW

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