Match Info

GERMANY: BUNDESLIGA - ROUND 17

Date: 13 January 2024, Saturday

Location: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor (Darmstadt)

Referee: Aytekin D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Darmstadt		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	5.25	4.33	1.55	Watch
	5.25	4.5	1.55	Watch
	5.5	4.5	1.58	Watch
	5.43	4.7	1.58
	5.43	4.62	1.58
	5	4.5	1.53	Watch
	5.6	4.78	1.59	Watch
	5.6	4.8	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.38 ↑ (5.16)	4.59 ↓ (4.73)	1.56 ↑ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Darmstadt
17.8%

Draw
20.9%

Borussia Dortmund
61.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.5%

20.2%

61.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.2%

18.5%

56.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Darmstadt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Darmstadt than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Borussia Dortmund, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	5%	86.7%

Darmstadt - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (104 of 120 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.59% – 92.75%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schuhen M. (G) 14. Klarer C. 38. Riedel C. 5. Maglica M. 28. Franjic B. 32. Holland F. (C) 19. Karic E. 26. Bader M. 11. Kempe T. 27. Skarke T. 24. Pfeiffer L.	1. Kobel G. (G) 24. Meunier T. 23. Can E. (C) 4. Schlotterbeck N. 22. Maatsen I. 19. Brandt J. 6. Ozcan S. 20. Sabitzer M. 21. Malen D. 14. Fullkrug N. 43. Bynoe-Gittens J.
Substitutes
30. Brunst A. (G) 23. Gjasula K. 3. Isherwood T. 16. Muller A. 20. Muller J. 8. Schnellhardt F. 42. Torsiello F. 29. Vilhelmsson O. 4. Zimmermann C.	42. Blank H. 33. Meyer A. (G) 2. Morey M. 18. Moukoko Y. 11. Reus M. 7. Reyna G. 10. Sancho J. 25. Sule N. 17. Wolf M.
Coaches
Lieberknecht T.	Terzic E.

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Group Stage: )).

Darmstadt has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Borussia D is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Darmstadt could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Borussia D have a series of home games.

In this match Borussia D is a favorite.

There will not play in Darmstadt: Hornby F. (Ankle Injury) Manu B. M. (Ankle Injury) Mehlem M. (Broken Leg) Nurnberger F. (Ankle Injury) Seydel A. (Calf Injury) Vilhelmsson O. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Borussia D: Adeyemi K. (Ankle Injury) Bensebaini R. (National selection) Duranville J. (Thigh Injury) Haller S. (National selection) Nmecha F. (Hip Injury) Ryerson J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Darmstadt: Honsak M. (Illness) Zimmermann C. (Illness)

There are questionable in Borussia D: Morey M. (Illness) Wolf M. (Illness)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Darmstadt won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Darmstadt won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SV Darmstadt 98
Club Friendly
06.01.24	Darmstadt - Holstein Kiel	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.12.23	Hoffenheim - Darmstadt	3:3 ✺
16.12.23	Darmstadt - Wolfsburg	0:1 ✺
09.12.23	Heidenheim - Darmstadt	3:2 ✺
01.12.23	Darmstadt - Köln	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTLLL
- Borussia Dortmund
Club Friendly
09.01.24	Borussia Dortmund - Standard Liège	3:3 ✺
06.01.24	Borussia Dortmund - AZ Alkmaar	2:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.12.23	Borussia Dortmund - Mainz	1:1 ✺
16.12.23	Augsburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
13.12.23	Borussia Dortmund - Paris Saint-Germain	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TTTTT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
11.02.17	Darmstadt - Borussia Dortmund	2:1
17.09.16	Borussia Dortmund - Darmstadt	6:0
02.03.16	Darmstadt - Borussia Dortmund	0:2
27.09.15	Borussia Dortmund - Darmstadt	2:2

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