Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 7

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: De Vijverberg (Doetinchem)

Referee: Manschot J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN


	De Graafschap		NAC Breda

	1	X	2
	3.6	4.2	1.76	Watch
	3.20	3.70	1.95
	3.7	3.6	1.85	Watch
	3.6	4.3	1.9
	3.49	4.28	1.84	Watch
	3.55	4.25	1.82
	3.61	4.21	1.81	Watch
	3.35	3.85	1.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.51 ↑ (3.2)	4.05 ↓ (4.23)	1.85 ↓ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

De Graafschap
26.5%

Draw
23%

NAC Breda
50.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.2%

22.1%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

20.6%

45.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

De Graafschap has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for De Graafschap than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for NAC Breda, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

De Graafschap - NAC Breda Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Graafschap (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wieggers T. (G) 3. Besselink R. 15. Kok T. 14. Bolk G. 16. Martens N. 10. de Jong F. (C) 8. Warmerdam D. 21. Symons K. 7. van Zijl B. 9. Kania J. 11. Mero T.	1. Verrips M. (G) 2. Lucassen B. 4. Greiml L. 22. Hillen R. 12. Van den Bergh J. 78. Van Hecke J. 6. Balard M. 14. Sowah K. 10. Nassoh M. (C) 28. Brym C. 9. Soumano M.
Substitutes
27. Ahmeti N. 18. Eijken D. 20. Finocchiaro G. 34. Hartgers N. 23. Jonkers R. (G) 17. Kaninda N. 40. Kwint K. 25. Pabai M. 22. Reverson P. (G) 38. Smits M. 2. Wieckhoff J.	35. Brouwers M. 5. Candelaria J. 55. Ghalidi B. 33. Ikpia E. 8. Jensen F. 23. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 11. Misehouy G. 34. Nazih I. 26. Reulen P.
Coaches
Duivenvoorden T.	Kruys R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
18', 0 - 1, Brym C. ⚽,
40', 0 - 2, Brym C. ⚽, Nassoh M. (A),
44', Nassoh M. 🟨,
45', 1 - 2, Kania J. ⚽, Martens N. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Kok T. 🟨,
58', van Zijl B. ↓, Finocchiaro G. ↑,
58', Kania J. ↓, Kwint K. ↑,
63', Kok T. 🟨,
64', Brym C. ↓, Jensen F. ↑,
69', Symons K. ↓, Wieckhoff J. ↑,
69', Mero T. ↓, Kaninda N. ↑,
73', Van Hecke J. ↓, Ghalidi B. ↑,
82', Van den Bergh J. 🟨,
84', Sowah K. ↓, Nazih I. ↑,
84', Lucassen B. ↓, Misehouy G. ↑,
84', Besselink R. ↓, Hartgers N. ↑,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 19th and 15th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, De Graafschap won 1.

Both teams have struggled for positive results in recent outings.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Breda holding a narrow advantage.

Doubtful / questionable for De Graafschap: Schoppema L. (Ankle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Breda: Goos T. (Shoulder Injury).

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, De Graafschap has recorded 6 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:14 (averaging 0.9:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for De Graafschap against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 10:2 goals (averaging 1.7:0.3 per game).

Outrights of Dutch Eerste Divisie for now

NAC Breda: 16.24% De Graafschap: 0.81%

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	NAC Breda	10	5	2	3	20:19	1	17
16	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13:23	-10	11

Last Results with these Odds

NAC Breda - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 48.69%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- De Graafschap
Dutch Eerste Divisie
11.09.26	Emmen - De Graafschap	1:2 ✺
04.09.26	Heracles Almelo - De Graafschap	5:0 ✺
29.08.26	De Graafschap - Almere City	1:4 ✺
23.08.26	VVV-Venlo - De Graafschap	2:1 ✺
17.08.26	De Graafschap - Jong AZ Alkmaar	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLLL
- NAC Breda
Dutch Eerste Divisie
11.09.26	NAC Breda - Jong Utrecht	2:3 ✺
04.09.26	Waalwijk - NAC Breda	4:2 ✺
28.08.26	Roda - NAC Breda	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	NAC Breda - Jong Ajax	3:2 ✺
14.08.26	NAC Breda - VVV-Venlo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
02.02.24	NAC Breda - De Graafschap	0:0
03.11.23	De Graafschap - NAC Breda	1:0
10.02.23	NAC Breda - De Graafschap	2:0
09.09.22	De Graafschap - NAC Breda	1:1
11.03.22	NAC Breda - De Graafschap	2:0
20.08.21	De Graafschap - NAC Breda	2:0
28.03.21	NAC Breda - De Graafschap	3:1

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