What is the expert prediction for Deportivo Alavés vs Athletic Bilbao?

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Deportivo Alavés vs Athletic Bilbao Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, May 02, 2026)

Match Info

LaLiga - Round 34

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Mendizorrotza (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

Referee: Quintero A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
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Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
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Vietnam	SCTV 15, SCTV Online


	Deportivo Alavés		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.3	2.6	Watch
	2.7	3.3	2.55
	2.82	3.25	2.58	Watch
	2.86	3.36	2.64
	2.8	3.35	2.56	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.5
	2.91	3.35	2.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.79 ↑ (2.63)	3.29 ↓ (3.33)	2.59 ↓ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Alavés
34.2%

Draw
29%

Athletic Bilbao
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.9%

28.4%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

28.8%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Alavés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25.9%	48.1%	25.9%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Alavés will win (votes: 7 - 25.9%). Athletic will win (votes: 7 - 25.9%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 48.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29.3% – 66.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sivera A. (G) 7. Perez A. 17. Jonny Otto 14. Tenaglia N. 24. Parada V. 21. Rebbach A. 19. Ibanez P. 8. Blanco A. (C) 4. Suarez D. 11. Martinez T. 22. Diabate I.	1. Simon U. (G) 2. Gorosabel A. 5. Alvarez Y. 14. Laporte A. 17. Berchiche Y. 30. Rego A. 18. Jauregizar M. 9. Williams I. (C) 20. Gomez U. 10. Williams N. 11. Guruzeta G.
Substitutes
10. Alena C. 20. Calebe 9. Diaz M. 13. Fernandez R. (G) 6. Guevara A. 18. Guridi J. 16. Koski V. 34. Manas A. 27. Munoz E. 5. Pacheco J. 31. Swiderski G. (G) 3. Yusi	12. Areso J. 7. Berenguer A. 19. Boiro A. 25. Izeta 23. Navarro R. 27. Padilla A. (G) 4. Paredes A. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 8. Sancet O. 22. Serrano N. 6. Vesga M. 3. Vivian D.
Coaches
Sanchez Flores Q.	Valverde E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Blanco A. ⚽, Perez A. (A),
28', Martinez T. 🟨,
41', Valverde E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 4)
46', Jauregizar M. ↓, Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↑,
46', Williams I. ↓, Navarro R. ↑,
46', Gomez U. ↓, Sancet O. ↑,
46', 1 - 1, Navarro R. ⚽, Williams N. (A),
49', Ibanez P. 🟨,
60', Guruzeta G. 🟨,
60', Blanco A. 🟨,
62', Suarez D. ↓, Guridi J. ↑,
62', Ibanez P. ↓, Guevara A. ↑,
68', 2 - 1, Tenaglia N. ⚽, Rebbach A. (A),
73', Diabate I. ↓, Alena C. ↑,
73', Gorosabel A. ↓, Areso J. ↑,
74', 2 - 2, Sancet O. ⚽, Berchiche Y. (A),
76', Williams N. 🟨,
83', 2 - 3, Williams N. ⚽, Guruzeta G. (A),
84', Jauregizar M. 🟨,
87', 2 - 4, Williams N. ⚽, Guruzeta G. (A),
89', Williams N. ↓, Boiro A. ↑,
90+2', Alena C. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alavés won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Alavés: Boye L. (Muscle Injury) Garces F. (Suspended) Protesoni C. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Athletic: Prados Diaz B. (Knee Injury) Sannadi M. (Coach's decision)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alavés won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 14:19. (average 0.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Alavés won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 1:0.6).

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Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Ath Bilbao	38	13	6	19	43:58	-15	45
14	Alaves	38	11	10	17	44:56	-12	43

Last Results with these Odds

Athletic Bilbao - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 35.76%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga
25.04.26	Deportivo Alavés - Mallorca	2:1 ✺
21.04.26	Real Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Real Sociedad - Deportivo Alavés	3:3 ✺
05.04.26	Deportivo Alavés - Osasuna	2:2 ✺
22.03.26	Celta de Vigo - Deportivo Alavés	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WLTTW
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
25.04.26	Atlético Madrid - Athletic Bilbao	3:2 ✺
21.04.26	Athletic Bilbao - Osasuna	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Getafe - Athletic Bilbao	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Athletic Bilbao - Betis	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
13.09.25	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	0:1
Club Friendly
22.07.25	Deportivo Alavés - Athletic Bilbao	1:0
Spanish LaLiga
11.05.25	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	1:0
15.12.24	Deportivo Alavés - Athletic Bilbao	1:1
16.03.24	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	2:0
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.01.24	Athletic Bilbao - Deportivo Alavés	2:0
Spanish LaLiga
22.09.23	Deportivo Alavés - Athletic Bilbao	0:2

Deportivo Alavés - Athletic Bilbao: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide