Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 1

Date: 19 May 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel (Maldonado)


	Deportivo Maldonado		Rentistas

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.75	2.87
	2.46	2.85	2.95
	2.54	2.83	3.08
	2.54	2.88	3.08	Watch
	2.41	3.18	2.94
	2.46	2.85	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.02)	2.89 ↓ (3.25)	2.98 ↓ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Maldonado
37.2%

Draw
31.9%

Rentistas
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

28.4%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

27.3%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Maldonado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Maldonado's form might have worsened.

Rentistas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Maldonado than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo Maldonado, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rentistas than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rentistas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Deportivo Maldonado - Rentistas Predictions

Users Predictions: Deportivo Maldonado will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Deportivo Maldonado will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', 0 - 1, Carlos Sanchez ⚽,
68', 1 - 1, Toledo H. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 4.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Maldonado won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 2.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Maldonado SAD
Uruguayan Segunda Division
26.04.25	Deportivo Maldonado - La Luz	4:4 ✺
20.04.25	Deportivo Maldonado - Colón Montevideo	2:0 ✺
12.04.25	Oriental de La Paz - Deportivo Maldonado	0:0 ✺
04.04.25	Deportivo Maldonado - Tacuarembó	0:1 ✺
28.03.25	Rampla Juniors - Deportivo Maldonado	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TWTLW
- CA Rentistas
Uruguayan Segunda Division
27.04.25	Cerrito - Rentistas	1:0 ✺
19.04.25	Rentistas - Albion Montevideo	0:0 ✺
11.04.25	Central Español - Rentistas	0:1 ✺
05.04.25	Rentistas - Atenas de San Carlos	2:0 ✺
29.03.25	Uruguay Montevideo - Rentistas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
02.09.22	Deportivo Maldonado - Rentistas	2:1
10.06.22	Rentistas - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1
26.02.22	Rentistas - Deportivo Maldonado	1:2
01.10.21	Deportivo Maldonado - Rentistas	2:1
06.06.21	Rentistas - Deportivo Maldonado	0:2
30.01.21	Deportivo Maldonado - Rentistas	3:1
07.03.20	Rentistas - Deportivo Maldonado	4:1

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