Match Info

PERU: LIGA 1 - CLAUSURA - ROUND 4

Date: 17 July 2023, Monday

Location: Estadio Iván Elías Moreno (Lima)


	Deportivo Municipal		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.6	1.85	Watch
	3.7	3.3	1.83
	4.1	3.5	1.85
	4.16	3.52	1.85
	4	3.3	1.83
	4.2	3.55	1.86	Watch
	3.9	3.5	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.04 ↓ (6.3)	3.47 ↓ (4.55)	1.85 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Municipal
23%

Draw
26.8%

FBC Melgar
50.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.8%

20.5%

64.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.2%

19.7%

67.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Municipal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Municipal's performance.

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and FBC Melgar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Municipal than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Municipal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+16.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that FBC Melgar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	37.5%	37.5%

Deportivo Municipal - FBC Melgar Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Municipal will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Melgar will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melgar: 4% – 71%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rivadeneyra S. (G) 26. Toledo J. 3. Rugel L. 15. Cavagna F. 22. Cespedes J. (C) 19. Correa Vilela E. I. 18. Flores C. 16. Galvez del Cuadro S. 10. Perez Garcia M. 14. Nunes J. 32. Erustes P.	12. Caceda C. (G) 4. Ramos E. 3. Orzan H. 2. Galeano L. 17. Archimbaud J. 26. Cabrera Nakamura K. G. 24. Tandazo W. 90. Lavandeira Hernandez P. 10. Martinez T. 9. Cuesta B. (C) 11. D'Arrigo J.
Substitutes
35. Ampuero A. 23. Cabrera E. 97. Cabrera F. 13. Moyano D. 77. Olascuaga 30. Ortega Barquero F. A. 34. Panduro M. 33. Solis C. (G) 36. Yanez A.	22. Aguinaga A. 28. Arias A. 7. Bordacahar C. 21. Cabezudo J. (G) 14. Cavero S. 5. Deneumostier A. 33. Lazo M. 18. Portugal B. 19. Reyna P.
Coaches
Castillo R.	Soso M.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Municipal won 1.

Recent matches Municipal is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Melgar is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Melgar could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Melgar is a favorite.

Last 22 head-to-head matches Municipal won 6 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 10 matches and goals 27-32.

Including matches at home between the teams Municipal won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 14-13.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Municipal
Peruvian Liga 1
01.07.23	Deportivo Municipal - Alianza Lima	0:1 ✺
25.06.23	Unión Comercio - Deportivo Municipal	1:3 ✺
10.06.23	Cantolao - Deportivo Municipal	0:1 ✺
03.06.23	Deportivo Municipal - Alianza Atlético	2:1 ✺
26.05.23	Cienciano - Deportivo Municipal	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWWWL
- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
07.07.23	FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau	3:0 ✺
01.07.23	Deportivo Garcilaso - FBC Melgar	2:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
27.06.23	Olimpia Asuncion - FBC Melgar	4:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
22.06.23	FBC Melgar - ADT Tarma	4:0 ✺
10.06.23	FBC Melgar - Escuela Municipal Binacional	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
13.02.23	FBC Melgar - Deportivo Municipal	0:2
11.09.22	FBC Melgar - Deportivo Municipal	6:2
22.04.22	Deportivo Municipal - FBC Melgar	1:3
24.10.21	Deportivo Municipal - FBC Melgar	1:3
30.11.20	FBC Melgar - Deportivo Municipal	3:2
17.10.20	Deportivo Municipal - FBC Melgar	1:2
14.07.19	Deportivo Municipal - FBC Melgar	1:0

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