Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 38

Date: 12 March 2024, Tuesday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Breakspear C. (Eng)


	Derby County		Reading

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.75	6
	1.6	3.9	5.25
	1.6	4	5.5
	1.62	4.05	5.69
	1.63	4.06	5.69
	1.57	3.9	5.5
	1.62	4.05	5.55	Watch
	1.55	3.85	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.67)	3.95 ↓ (3.97)	5.57 ↑ (4.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
59.1%

Draw
24%

Reading
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

23.8%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.8%

22.9%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Reading has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Reading than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	7.1%	7.1%

Derby County - Reading Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (24 of 28 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.75% – 98.67%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wildsmith J. (G) 35. Nelson C. 5. Bradley S. 6. Cashin E. 23. Ward J. 32. Adams E. 4. Hourihane C. (C) 17. Sibley L. 7. Barkhuizen T. 25. Gayle D. 11. Mendez-Laing N.	22. Pereira J. (G) 17. Yiadom A. (C) 27. Mbengue A. S. 24. Bindon T. 2. Mola C. 29. Wing L. 8. Savage C. 11. Azeez F. 7. Knibbs H. 4. Elliott B. 10. Smith S.
Substitutes
27. Blackett-Taylor C. 3. Forsyth C. 13. Loach S. (G) 12. Smith K. 16. Thompson L. 10. Waghorn M. 2. Wilson K.	30. Abrefa K. 31. Boyce-Clarke C. (G) 20. Dorsett A. J. R. 15. Ehibhatiomhan K. 12. Mukairu P. 40. Rushesha T. 19. Wareham J.
Coaches
Warne P.	Selles R.

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 18).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Derby won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Reading could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Derby is a favorite.

Last 23 head-to-head matches Derby won 8 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 28-34.

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 15-20.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League One
09.03.24	Bristol Rovers - Derby County	0:3 ✺
02.03.24	Derby County - Port Vale	3:0 ✺
27.02.24	Derby County - Charlton Athletic	1:2 ✺
24.02.24	Barnsley - Derby County	2:1 ✺
17.02.24	Derby County - Stevenage Borough	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWLLW
- Reading
English League One
09.03.24	Reading - Wycombe Wanderers	1:2 ✺
02.03.24	Carlisle United - Reading	1:3 ✺
24.02.24	Reading - Shrewsbury Town	2:3 ✺
20.02.24	Reading - Port Vale	2:0 ✺
17.02.24	Portsmouth - Reading	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
23.01.24	Reading - Derby County	1:0
English League Championship
03.01.22	Reading - Derby County	2:2
29.09.21	Derby County - Reading	1:0
05.04.21	Reading - Derby County	3:1
12.09.20	Derby County - Reading	0:2
27.06.20	Derby County - Reading	2:1
21.12.19	Reading - Derby County	3:0

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