Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 36

Date: 2 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Gill S. (Eng)


	Derby County		Port Vale

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.33	8.5
	1.43	4.4	7
	1.42	4.5	7.5
	1.41	4.25	7
	1.42	4.74	7.98
	1.4	4.5	7.5
	1.42	4.6	7.7	Watch
	1.38	4.4	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.41)	4.47 ↓ (4.48)	7.55 ↑ (6.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
66.5%

Draw
21.1%

Port Vale
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.8%

20.8%

13.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.8%

19.6%

12.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Port Vale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Derby County - Port Vale Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wildsmith J. (G) 35. Nelson C. 5. Bradley S. (C) 6. Cashin E. 23. Ward J. 32. Adams E. 8. Bird M. 17. Sibley L. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 25. Gayle D. 7. Barkhuizen T.	1. Ripley C. (G) 27. Debrah J. 5. Lopata K. 17. Iacovitti A. 19. Massey G. 8. Garrity B. (C) 14. Ojo F. 23. Shorrock J. 21. Plant J. 20. Weir J. 10. Chislett E.
Substitutes
27. Blackett-Taylor C. 4. Hourihane C. 13. Loach S. (G) 12. Smith K. 16. Thompson L. 10. Waghorn M. 2. Wilson K.	7. Clark M. 25. Dipepa B. 13. Leutwiler J. (G) 16. Lowe J. 11. Mighten A. 6. Smith N. 24. Walters R.
Coaches
Warne P.	Moore D.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Recent matches Derby is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Port Vale is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Port Vale could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Derby is certain favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Derby won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Derby won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League One
27.02.24	Derby County - Charlton Athletic	1:2 ✺
24.02.24	Barnsley - Derby County	2:1 ✺
17.02.24	Derby County - Stevenage Borough	1:0 ✺
13.02.24	Exeter City - Derby County	0:3 ✺
10.02.24	Derby County - Shrewsbury Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLWWT
- Port Vale
English League One
27.02.24	Port Vale - Fleetwood Town	2:2 ✺
24.02.24	Port Vale - Lincoln City	0:2 ✺
20.02.24	Reading - Port Vale	2:0 ✺
17.02.24	Cheltenham Town - Port Vale	3:2 ✺
10.02.24	Port Vale - Stevenage Borough	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
28.11.23	Port Vale - Derby County	0:1
24.01.23	Port Vale - Derby County	1:2
08.10.22	Derby County - Port Vale	1:2
Club Friendly
18.07.17	Port Vale - Derby County	0:1
16.07.13	Port Vale - Derby County	3:5

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