Match Info

NETHERLANDS: EREDIVISIE - ROUND 28

Date: 9 April 2023, Sunday

Location: De Oude Meerdijk (Emmen)

Referee: Kooij J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN


	Emmen		NEC Nijmegen

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.25	2.5	Watch
	2.85	3.3	2.45
	2.9	3.4	2.4
	2.8	3.3	2.4
	2.92	3.45	2.53
	2.8	3.3	2.45	Watch
	2.88	3.44	2.41	Watch
	2.9	3.4	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↓ (3)	3.36 ↓ (3.39)	2.45 ↑ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Emmen
33.1%

Draw
28.3%

NEC Nijmegen
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

28%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

29.1%

41.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Emmen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

NEC Nijmegen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emmen than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for NEC Nijmegen than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	42.9%	50%

Emmen - NEC Nijmegen Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Emmen will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). Nijmegen will win (votes: 7 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nijmegen: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 and 10).

Emmen has the most likely position - 15 (38.87%), project points - 29, currently - 24, a chance of relegated (47%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

Nijmegen has the most likely position - 10 (26.19%), project points - 43, currently - 34, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 45, importance 39, match rating 42. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Emmen won 3.

Two teams are playing changeable.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Emmen won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 15-24.

Including matches at home between the teams Emmen won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Emmen
Dutch Eredivisie
01.04.23	Cambuur - Emmen	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
24.03.23	Emmen - Zwolle	1:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
18.03.23	Emmen - Sparta Rotterdam	0:2 ✺
11.03.23	Emmen - Excelsior	2:0 ✺
04.03.23	Volendam - Emmen	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WTLWL
- NEC Nijmegen
Dutch Eredivisie
01.04.23	NEC Nijmegen - PSV Eindhoven	2:4 ✺
18.03.23	Waalwijk - NEC Nijmegen	1:3 ✺
12.03.23	NEC Nijmegen - Utrecht	2:2 ✺
05.03.23	Ajax - NEC Nijmegen	1:0 ✺
25.02.23	NEC Nijmegen - Volendam	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
21.01.23	NEC Nijmegen - Emmen	3:1
Club Friendly
17.12.22	Emmen - NEC Nijmegen	3:2
Dutch Eredivisie
13.05.18	NEC Nijmegen - Emmen	4:1
10.05.18	Emmen - NEC Nijmegen	4:0
Dutch Eerste Divisie
02.02.18	Emmen - NEC Nijmegen	1:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
19.09.17	Emmen - NEC Nijmegen	1:3
Dutch Eerste Divisie
15.09.17	NEC Nijmegen - Emmen	1:1

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