Match Info

Serie B - Round 20

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Carlo Castellani (Empoli)

Referee: Bonacina K. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Empoli		Südtirol-Alto Adige

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.1	2.85	Watch
	2.35	3	3.1
	2.33	3.13	3.18	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.9
	2.46	2.94	3.12	Watch
	2.42	3	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.25)	3.01 ↓ (3.13)	3.05 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Empoli
38.4%

Draw
31%

Südtirol-Alto Adige
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

29.8%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

28.8%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Empoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Südtirol-Alto Adige has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Südtirol-Alto Adige than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40.9%	45.5%	13.6%

Empoli - Südtirol Alto Adige Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Empoli will win (votes: 9 - 40.9%). Südtirol will win (votes: 3 - 13.6%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 24.7% – 66.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Empoli (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Fulignati A. (G) 20. Lovato M. 34. Guarino G. 5. Obaretin N. 15. Ceesay J. 32. Haas N. (C) 18. Ghion A. 27. Moruzzi B. 7. Elia S. 10. Ilie R. 19. Nasti M.	31. Adamonis M. (G) 94. El Kaouakibi H. 28. Kofler R. 34. Veseli F. 79. Molina S. 21. Tait F. (C) 18. Tronchin S. 17. Casiraghi D. 7. Zedadka K. 33. Merkaj S. 9. Pecorino E.
Substitutes
99. Bianchi F. 79. Carboni F. 2. Curto M. 6. Degli Innocenti D. 24. Ebuehi T. 12. Gasparini M. (G) 25. Ignacchiti L. 1. Perisan S. (G) 77. Popov B. 11. Shpendi S. 29. Tosto L. 14. Yepes G.	3. Bordon F. 46. Brik D. 89. Crnigoj D. 23. Davi F. 24. Davi S. 26. Frigerio M. R. 8. Mallamo A. 4. Mancini D. 90. Odogwu R. 19. Pietrangeli N. 1. Poluzzi G. (G) 99. Verdi S.
Coaches
Dionisi A.	Castori F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Zedadka K. 🟨,
24', 0 - 1, Pecorino E. ⚽, Casiraghi D. (A),
45', Merkaj S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Tait F. 🟨,
59', Ceesay J. ↓, Shpendi S. ↑,
59', Haas N. ↓, Ignacchiti L. ↑,
63', Tait F. ↓, Frigerio M. R. ↑,
63', Casiraghi D. ↓, Crnigoj D. ↑,
63', Pecorino E. ↓, Odogwu R. ↑,
68', Merkaj S. ↓, Verdi S. ↑,
72', Ghion A. ↓, Degli Innocenti D. ↑,
72', Elia S. ↓, Ebuehi T. ↑,
74', Zedadka K. ↓, Davi S. ↑,
80', Ilie R. ↓, Popov B. ↑,
81', Verdi S. 🟨,
87', Tronchin S. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 15).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Empoli is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Empoli: Indragoli G. (Inactive) Konate I. (Inactive) Pellegri P. (Injury) Saporiti E. (Injury)

There will not play in Südtirol: Martini J. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Empoli won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 3.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Empoli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Sudtirol	6	3	3	0	9:3	6	12
13	Empoli	6	2	0	4	6:10	-4	6

Last Results with these Odds

Südtirol-Alto Adige - the odds 3.25 are the expected chance of winning is 28.71%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Empoli
Italian Serie B
10.01.26	Cesena - Empoli	0:1 ✺
27.12.25	Empoli - Frosinone	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Mantova - Empoli	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Juve Stabia - Empoli	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	Empoli - Palermo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WTWLL
- Südtirol-Alto Adige
Italian Serie B
10.01.26	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Spezia	2:1 ✺
27.12.25	Juve Stabia - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:0 ✺
21.12.25	Virtus Entella - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Bari	0:0 ✺
08.12.25	Monza - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
05.10.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Empoli	1:2
Coppa Italia
11.08.13	Empoli - Südtirol-Alto Adige	5:1

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