Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 28

Date: 9 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Carlo Castellani (Empoli)

Referee: Di Bello M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	DAZN 1, DAZN 3, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Max
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
India	GXR World
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport 2
Italy	DAZN Italia, NOW TV, Sky Calcio 1, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport 251, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
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Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Sport TV7
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	SuperSport Football
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Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 2
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
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Turkey	Exxen, S Sport 2, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-arab-emirates	Abu Dhabi Sports Premium 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports 1, Foxsports.com, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus
World	Disney+, Onefootball


	Empoli		Roma

	1	X	2
	3.9	3.3	2	Watch
	3.8	3.3	2
	3.95	3.25	2.02
	4.13	3.35	2.11
	4.05	3.31	2.06	Watch
	3.75	3.2	2.05
	3.93	3.48	2.11	Watch
	4	3.3	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.94 ↓ (4.89)	3.31 ↓ (3.68)	2.05 ↑ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

Watch this match and Italian Serie A with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: FOX Deportes

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Current Win Probability

Empoli
24.3%

Draw
28.9%

Roma
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.6%

26%

54.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.2%

25.5%

55.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Empoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Roma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Roma might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Empoli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roma than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Roma could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.9%	5.9%	88.2%

Empoli - Roma Predictions

Users Predictions: Roma will win (30 of 34 users predict this - 88.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.41% – 99.07%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silvestri M. (G) 2. Goglichidze S. 35. Marianucci L. 22. De Sciglio M. 11. Gyasi E. 5. Grassi A. (C) 6. Henderson L. 3. Pezzella G. 99. Esposito Se. 13. Cacace L. 29. Colombo L.	99. Svilar M. (G) 25. Nelsson V. 15. Hummels M. 5. Ndicka E. 12. Abdulhamid S. 17. Kone M. 16. Paredes L. 34. Salah-Eddine A. 18. Soule M. 7. Pellegrini Lo. (C) 14. Shomurodov E.
Substitutes
41. Asmussen A. 36. Bacci J. 98. Brancolini F. (G) 89. Campaniello T. 24. Ebuehi T. 90. Konate I. 18. Kouame C. 20. Kovalenko V. 7. Sambia J. 12. Seghetti J. (G) 31. Tosto L. 23. Vasquez Llach D. S. (G)	3. Angelino 35. Baldanzi T. 66. Buba Aboubacar 4. Cristante B. 70. De Marzi G. (G) 11. Dovbyk A. 92. El Shaarawy S. 95. Gollini P. (G) 27. Gourna-Douath L. 61. Pisilli N. 2. Rensch D. 56. Saelemaekers A.
Coaches
D'Aversa R.	Ranieri C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Soule M. ⚽, Salah-Eddine A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Colombo L. ↓, Kouame C. ↑,
46', De Sciglio M. ↓, Sambia J. ↑,
64', Abdulhamid S. ↓, Rensch D. ↑,
65', Salah-Eddine A. ↓, Angelino ↑,
65', Paredes L. ↓, Cristante B. ↑,
67', Henderson L. ↓, Kovalenko V. ↑,
67', Esposito Se. ↓, Konate I. ↑,
72', Shomurodov E. ↓, Dovbyk A. ↑,
81', Soule M. ↓, Baldanzi T. ↑,
87', Goglichidze S. ↓, Campaniello T. ↑,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Empoli won 2.

Empoli is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Roma in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Roma could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Roma have a series of home games.

Roma will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Empoli: Ebuehi T. (Knee Injury) Haas N. (Knee Injury) Pellegri P. (Knee Injury) Sazonov S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Roma: Mancini G. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Empoli: Anjorin F. (Thigh Injury) Fazzini J. (Thigh Injury) Ismajli A. (Thigh Injury) Maleh Y. (Injury) Solbakken O. (Shoulder Injury) Viti M. (Injury) Zurkowski S. (Injury)

Last 16 head-to-head matches Empoli won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 12 matches and goals 12:35 (average 0.8:2.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Empoli won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 6:13 (average 0.9:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Empoli
Italian Serie A
02.03.25	Genoa - Empoli	1:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
26.02.25	Juventus - Empoli	1:2 penalties ✺
Italian Serie A
23.02.25	Empoli - Atalanta	0:5 ✺
16.02.25	Udinese - Empoli	3:0 ✺
08.02.25	Empoli - Milan	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.5 TWLLL
- AS Roma
UEFA Europa League
06.03.25	Roma - Athletic Bilbao	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
02.03.25	Roma - Como	2:1 ✺
24.02.25	Roma - Monza	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
20.02.25	Roma - Porto	3:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
16.02.25	Parma - Roma	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
25.08.24	Roma - Empoli	1:2
26.05.24	Empoli - Roma	2:1
17.09.23	Roma - Empoli	7:0
04.02.23	Roma - Empoli	2:0
12.09.22	Empoli - Roma	1:2
23.01.22	Empoli - Roma	2:4
03.10.21	Roma - Empoli	2:0

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