Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 February 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Maximo 360, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, Q Arena Asia, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Azerbaijan	Ictimai TV
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
China	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 1
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 5
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Iceland	Stod 2 Sport 2
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	Wowow Live
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Fox Sports
Montenegro	Arena Premium 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1, TDM Desporto
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 3
Papua-new-guinea	TVWan Sports
Peru	ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, StarHub TV+
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 4
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 1, Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 3
Usa	CBS, Paramount+, TUDN
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	Disney+


	Roma		Porto

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.4	4.33	Watch
	1.95	3.5	4.2
	1.94	3.41	4.5
	1.91	3.38	4.67	Watch
	1.91	3.3	4.2
	1.88	3.51	4.66
	1.95	3.5	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.01)	3.43 ↓ (3.79)	4.39 ↑ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Roma
50.2%

Draw
28%

Porto
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

26%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

27.5%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Roma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Porto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roma than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.5%	14.3%	9.2%

Roma - Porto Predictions

Users Predictions: 97 users predict this event. Roma will win (votes: 74 - 76.3%). Porto will win (votes: 9 - 9.3%). It will Tie (votes: 14 - 14.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Roma: 67.8% – 84.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Svilar M. (G) 19. Celik Z. 23. Mancini G. 5. Ndicka E. 92. El Shaarawy S. 17. Kone M. 16. Paredes L. 3. Angelino 21. Dybala P. 7. Pellegrini Lo. (C) 14. Shomurodov E.	99. Costa D. (C) 3. Djalo T. 24. Perez N. 4. Otavio 23. Joao Mario 6. Eustaquio S. 22. Varela A. 74. Moura F. 11. Pepê 9. Samu 10. Vieira F.
Substitutes
12. Abdulhamid S. 35. Baldanzi T. 66. Buba Aboubacar 70. De Marzi G. (G) 95. Gollini P. (G) 15. Hummels M. 25. Nelsson V. 61. Pisilli N. 2. Rensch D. 18. Soule M.	70. Borges G. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 19. Danny Namaso 20. Franco A. 27. Gul D. 5. Marcano I. 86. Mora R. 97. Pedro J. 25. Perez T. 94. Portugal S. (G) 7. William Gomes 12. Zaidu
Coaches
Ranieri C.	Anselmi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
26', Otavio 🟨,
27', 0 - 1, Samu ⚽, Vieira F. (A),
29', Dybala P. 🟨,
34', Perez N. 🟨,
35', 1 - 1, Dybala P. ⚽, Shomurodov E. (A),
39', 2 - 1, Dybala P. ⚽, Kone M. (A),
41', Djalo T. 🟨,
42', Anselmi M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Eustaquio S. 🟥,
51', Paredes L. 🟨,
56', Pepê ↓, Borges G. ↑,
66', Otavio ↓, Mora R. ↑,
78', Pellegrini Lo. ↓, Pisilli N. ↑,
78', Shomurodov E. ↓, Soule M. ↑,
82', Varela A. ↓, Perez T. ↑,
82', Vieira F. ↓, William Gomes ↑,
82', Moura F. ↓, Danny Namaso ↑,
83', 3 - 1, Pisilli N. ⚽, Angelino (A),
87', Perez T. 🟨,
87', Dybala P. ↓, Baldanzi T. ↑,
87', El Shaarawy S. ↓, Rensch D. ↑,
90+3', William Gomes 🟨,
90+6', 3 - 2, Rensch D. (Own goal),

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 5 and 3).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Syracuse won 1.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Syracuse could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Syracuse have a series of guest games.

Recently Toronto have a series of home games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Syracuse won 11 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 65:56 (average 3.3:2.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Syracuse won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 32:32 (average 3.2:3.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Roma - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 49.04%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Roma
Italian Serie A
16.02.25	Parma - Roma	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
13.02.25	Porto - Roma	1:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
09.02.25	Venezia - Roma	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
05.02.25	Milan - Roma	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
02.02.25	Roma - Napoli	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WTWLT
- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
16.02.25	Farense - Porto	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
13.02.25	Porto - Roma	1:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
07.02.25	Porto - Sporting Lisbon	1:1 ✺
03.02.25	Rio Ave - Porto	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.01.25	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Porto	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WTTTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
13.02.25	Porto - Roma	1:1
Club Friendly
28.07.21	Porto - Roma	1:1
UEFA Champions League
06.03.19	Porto - Roma	3:1 ET
12.02.19	Roma - Porto	2:1
23.08.16	Roma - Porto	0:3
17.08.16	Porto - Roma	1:1

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