Match Info

Date: 19 September 2021, Sunday


	Erzgebirge Aue		Paderborn

	1	X	2
	3.8	4	1.83	Watch
	4.25	3.8	1.8	Watch
	4.2	3.8	1.78
	3.95	3.65	1.83
	4.23	3.87	1.87
	4	3.5	1.83
	4.05	3.84	1.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.07 ↑ (3.52)	3.78 ↑ (3.58)	1.83 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Erzgebirge Aue
23.2%

Draw
25%

Paderborn
51.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.7%

26.3%

47%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21%

20.7%

59.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Erzgebirge Aue has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Paderborn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Erzgebirge Aue than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paderborn could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29%	9.7%	61.3%

Erzgebirge Aue - Paderborn Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Aue will win (votes: 9 - 29%). Paderborn will win (votes: 19 - 61.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 9.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paderborn: 44.2% – 78.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 3. Liga and 6).

Aue has the most likely position - 18 (26.19%), has project points - 32, has currently - 3, has a good chance of relegated (51%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Paderborn has the most likely position - 4 (8.56%), has project points - 52, has currently - 11, has a very small chance of relegated (3%), has a chance of promoted (19%), has a small chance of win league (8%).

Aue is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Paderborn is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Paderborn is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Aue won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 7-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Aue won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 5-14.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Erzgebirge Aue
German 2 Bundesliga
12.09.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Fortuna Düsseldorf	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
04.09.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Hallescher	6:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
28.08.21	Holstein Kiel - Erzgebirge Aue	3:0 ✺
22.08.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Sandhausen	1:3 ✺
13.08.21	Schalke 04 - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWLLT
- SC Paderborn 07
German 2 Bundesliga
12.09.21	Paderborn - Schalke 04	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.09.21	Gütersloh - Paderborn	2:5 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
29.08.21	Dynamo Dresden - Paderborn	0:3 ✺
21.08.21	Paderborn - St. Pauli	3:1 ✺
15.08.21	Werder Bremen - Paderborn	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
09.05.21	Erzgebirge Aue - Paderborn	3:8
10.01.21	Paderborn - Erzgebirge Aue	2:1
09.03.19	Erzgebirge Aue - Paderborn	2:1
29.09.18	Paderborn - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0
Club Friendly
16.01.15	Paderborn - Erzgebirge Aue	1:0
German 2 Bundesliga
04.05.14	Erzgebirge Aue - Paderborn	0:2
01.12.13	Paderborn - Erzgebirge Aue	1:1

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