Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal - Round 25

Date: 8 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril)

Referee: Nobre A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6


	Estoril Praia		Farense

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.9	3.1	Watch
	2.1	3.3	3.5
	2.5	3.1	3	Watch
	2.58	3.08	3.12
	2.55	2.99	3.09	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.9	Watch
	2.54	2.98	3.32	Watch
	2.5	3.1	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.07)	3.04 ↓ (3.28)	3.13 ↓ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estoril Praia
38.4%

Draw
31.2%

Farense
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.5%

28.8%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

28.4%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estoril Praia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Estoril Praia's form might have worsened.

Farense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Estoril Praia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Farense than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	0%	7.7%

Estoril Praia - Farense Predictions

Users Predictions: Estoril Praia will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Robles J. (G) 44. Boma K. 23. Alvaro P. (C) 25. Bacher F. 22. Carvalho P. 6. Jandro 10. Holsgrove J. 24. Amaral P. 99. Guitane R. 9. Marques A. 7. Vinicius Zanocelo	33. Velho R. (G) 3. Moreno M. 5. Ribeiro T. 4. Jorge A. 28. Pastor 8. Ze Carlos 29. Claudio Falcao 31. Derick Poloni 20. Rony Lopes 9. Tomane 77. Matias M. (C)
Substitutes
14. Begraoui Y. 1. Chamorro K. (G) 26. Foe Ondoa M. 17. Garcia Andrade F. 19. Lacximicant A. 91. Lanquetin P. 5. Mangala E. 55. Parente T. 92. Salazar I. P.	7. Balde E. 22. Carvalho M. (G) 19. Costa R. 93. Menino M. 10. Njie Y. 2. Paulo Victor 14. Poveda D. 34. Raul Silva 21. Soares F.
Coaches
Cathro I.	Marreco T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Ribeiro T. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
50', 1 - 0, Vinicius Zanocelo ⚽, Guitane R. (A),
55', 2 - 0, Marques A. ⚽,
61', Matias M. ↓, Balde E. ↑,
61', Ribeiro T. ↓, Menino M. ↑,
61', Jorge A. ↓, Costa R. ↑,
67', Marques A. ↓, Begraoui Y. ↑,
73', Ze Carlos ↓, Soares F. ↑,
73', Rony Lopes ↓, Njie Y. ↑,
78', Guitane R. ↓, Lacximicant A. ↑,
85', Lacximicant A. 🟨,
86', 2 - 1, Costa R. ⚽,
87', Jandro ↓, Garcia Andrade F. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 2, Menino M. ⚽, Soares F. (A),
90+5', Boma K. 🟨,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 8 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Estoril won 2.

Estoril is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Farense has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Estoril will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Estoril: Carvalho J. (Red Card) Xeka (Yellow Cards)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Estoril won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 13:10 (average 1.4:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Estoril won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:2 (average 2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
03.03.25	Sporting Lisbon - Estoril Praia	3:1 ✺
22.02.25	Estoril Praia - Rio Ave	2:1 ✺
15.02.25	Nacional - Estoril Praia	2:2 ✺
09.02.25	Estoril Praia - Boavista	2:1 ✺
01.02.25	Gil Vicente - Estoril Praia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LWTWW
- SC Farense
Liga Portugal
02.03.25	Farense - AVS	0:1 ✺
23.02.25	Arouca - Farense	2:2 ✺
16.02.25	Farense - Porto	0:1 ✺
09.02.25	Farense - Nacional	0:2 ✺
02.02.25	Sporting Lisbon - Farense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
06.10.24	Farense - Estoril Praia	1:0
05.05.24	Farense - Estoril Praia	3:2
30.12.23	Estoril Praia - Farense	4:0
Portuguese Liga 2
01.02.20	Farense - Estoril Praia	0:2
18.08.19	Estoril Praia - Farense	1:2
14.04.19	Farense - Estoril Praia	3:1
16.12.18	Estoril Praia - Farense	1:0

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