Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 16

Date: 27 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota (Estoril)

Referee: Verissimo F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3, COSMOTE Sport 5
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Estoril Praia		Alverca

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.3	3.2	Watch
	2.18	3.35	3.15	Watch
	2.22	3.5	3.16	Watch
	2.2	3.3	3.1	Watch
	2.29	3.47	3.27	Watch
	2.28	3.4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↓ (2.51)	3.39 ↑ (3.3)	3.15 ↑ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estoril Praia
42.4%

Draw
27.8%

Alverca
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

29.4%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

30.1%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.7%	13.3%	10%

Estoril Praia - Alverca Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Estoril will win (votes: 23 - 76.7%). Alverca will win (votes: 3 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Estoril: 61.6% – 91.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Estoril (votes: 7 - 70%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Estoril (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Estoril (2.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Estoril (votes: 9 - 75%). Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Robles J. (G) 22. Carvalho P. 25. Bacher F. 44. Boma K. 24. Amaral P. 10. Holsgrove J. 6. Jandro 12. Carvalho J. (C) 99. Guitane R. 9. Marques A. 14. Begraoui Y.	13. Gomes A. (G) 3. Martinez J. 4. Naves (C) 33. Meupiyou B. 2. Touaizi N. 8. Amorim 21. Abdulai S. 55. Chissumba 18. Lincoln 91. Sandro Lima 11. Nuozzi C.
Substitutes
90. Brito T. 4. Ferro 17. Garcia F. 7. Lominadze N. 55. Parente T. 70. Peixinho 21. Pizzi 5. Tsoungui A. 16. Turk M. (G)	14. Baseya S. 77. Felipe Lima 5. Gomez S. 6. Gui D. 12. James I. 37. Kauan 19. Leite T. 9. Marezi 1. Matheus Mendes (G)
Coaches
Cathro I.	Custodio

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Meupiyou B. (Own goal),
43', 2 - 0, Begraoui Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Nuozzi C. ↓, Marezi ↑,
47', 3 - 0, Begraoui Y. ⚽, Carvalho J. (A),
49', Lincoln 🟨,
52', Carvalho P. 🟨,
55', Touaizi N. 🟨,
57', Carvalho J. ↓, Tsoungui A. ↑,
60', 4 - 0, Meupiyou B. (Own goal),
61', Marezi ↓, Leite T. ↑,
61', Lincoln ↓, Gui D. ↑,
67', 4 - 1, Amorim ⚽, Abdulai S. (A),
68', Amaral P. ↓, Pizzi ↑,
68', Carvalho P. ↓, Parente T. ↑,
74', Sandro Lima ↓, Felipe Lima ↑,
75', Meupiyou B. ↓, Gomez S. ↑,
86', Martinez J. 🟨,
87', Marques A. ↓, Peixinho ↑,
88', Jandro ↓, Lominadze N. ↑,
90+2', Tsoungui A. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 11).

Estoril is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alverca's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Alverca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Estoril could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Estoril: Costa G. (Injury) Guitane R. (International duty) Sanchez R. (Yellow Cards) Xeka (Injury)

There will not play in Alverca: Diarra S. (Muscle Injury) Mendes T. (Muscle Injury) Paulo A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Estoril: Amaral P. (Injury) Israelov O. (Thigh Injury) Sanchez R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Alverca: Chiquinho (Injury) Leo Chu (Injury)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
19.12.25	Estoril Praia - Braga	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Famalicão - Estoril Praia	4:0 ✺
07.12.25	Estoril Praia - Moreirense	3:3 ✺
30.11.25	Porto - Estoril Praia	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Estoril Praia - Famalicão	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLTLL
- FC Alverca
Liga Portugal
22.12.25	Alverca - Porto	0:3 ✺
14.12.25	Arouca - Alverca	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Alverca - Nacional	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Casa Pia - Alverca	0:2 ✺
08.11.25	Alverca - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LLWWT

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