Match Info

FA Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Pride Park (Derby) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Argentina	09:00	Disney+
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	23:00	Stan Sport
Austria	13:00	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Bosnia And Herzegovina	13:00	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	09:00	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	14:00	Nova Sport
Canada	07:00	Sportsnet+, Sportsnet East, Sportsnet Ontario, Sportsnet Pacific, Sportsnet West, Sportsnet World
Chile	09:00	Disney+
Colombia	07:00	Disney+
Croatia	13:00	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	14:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech Republic	13:00	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
Denmark	13:00	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	14:00	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	13:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Germany	13:00	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	14:00	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong Kong	20:00	M Plus Live
Hungary	13:00	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	12:00	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
Indonesia	19:00	Vidio
Israel	14:00	Sport 2
Italy	13:00	DAZN Italia, Discovery+
Japan	21:00	U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	18:00	Qazsport, Sport+
Kenya	15:00	Gotv
Kosovo	13:00	Arena Premium 2
Malaysia	20:00	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Sooka
Malta	13:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	06:00	HBO Max, TNT Go, TNT Sports
Netherlands	13:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	01:00	TVWan Sports 2
Nigeria	13:00	Supersport Maximo 1
Norway	13:00	Viaplay
Peru	07:00	Disney+
Serbia	13:00	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	13:00	Voyo
South Africa	14:00	Supersport Maximo 1
South Korea	21:00	Coupang Play
Sweden	13:00	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	13:00	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	15:00	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
United Kingdom	12:00	BBC Radio 5 Live, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 2
Uruguay	09:00	Disney+
Usa	07:00	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	08:00	Disney+


	Derby County		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	5.75	4.1	1.51
	4.75	3.75	1.65
	5.9	4.15	1.58
	5.19	4.06	1.63	Watch
	5.5	3.8	1.53
	6.24	4.23	1.58	Watch
	6	3.8	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.62 ↑ (5.27)	3.98 ↑ (3.69)	1.58 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
16.8%

Draw
23.6%

Leeds United
59.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

17.8%

25.4%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17%

24.3%

58.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	11.5%	80.8%

Derby County - Leeds United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Derby (4.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Leeds (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Leeds United will win (21 of 26 users predict this - 80.77%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.62% – 95.92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Leeds United will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Derby (votes: 1 - 10%). Leeds (votes: 8 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 23. Ward J. 6. Langas S. 4. Batth D. 3. Forsyth C. 25. Brereton Diaz B. 27. Travis L. (C) 29. Fraulo O. 11. Blackett-Taylor C. 42. Clark B. 15. Salvesen L.	26. Darlow K. (G) 23. Bornauw S. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 15. Bijol J. 29. Gnonto W. 44. Gruev I. 22. Tanaka A. 20. Harrison J. 10. Piroe J. 14. Nmecha L. 19. Okafor N.
Substitutes
32. Adams E. 7. Agyemang P. 10. Brewster R. 37. Eames O. 20. Elder C. 35. Nelson C. 12. O'Donnell R. (G) 18. Ozoh D. 14. Weimann A.	11. Aaronson B. 25. Byram S. 9. Calvert-Lewin D. 42. Chambers S. 24. Justin J. 8. Longstaff S. 1. Lucas Perri (G) 18. Stach A. 5. Struijk P.
Coaches
Eustace J.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Fraulo O. 🟨,
33', Piroe J. (Penalty Awarded),
35', 1 - 0, Brereton Diaz B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Fraulo O. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
46', Bornauw S. ↓, Justin J. ↑,
55', 1 - 1, Gnonto W. ⚽, Bijol J. (A),
59', 1 - 2, Tanaka A. ⚽,
63', Travis L. ↓, Ozoh D. ↑,
63', Blackett-Taylor C. ↓, Brewster R. ↑,
73', Gruev I. ↓, Longstaff S. ↑,
73', Salvesen L. ↓, Agyemang P. ↑,
73', Clark B. ↓, Eames O. ↑,
86', Gnonto W. ↓, Byram S. ↑,
89', Piroe J. ↓, Stach A. ↑,
89', Okafor N. ↓, Aaronson B. ↑,
90+2', Harrison J. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 3, Justin J. ⚽, Nmecha L. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Leeds may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Leeds is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Derby won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 26:30. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.4:1.5).

Outrights of English FA Cup for now

Leeds: 1.84% Derby: 0.4%

Last Results with these Odds

Leeds United - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 56.82%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League Championship
04.01.26	Derby County - Wrexham	1:2 ✺
01.01.26	Derby County - Middlesbrough	1:0 ✺
29.12.25	Leicester City - Derby County	2:1 ✺
26.12.25	Birmingham City - Derby County	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Derby County - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWLTT
- Leeds United
English Premier League
07.01.26	Newcastle United - Leeds United	4:3 ✺
04.01.26	Leeds United - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
01.01.26	Liverpool - Leeds United	0:0 ✺
28.12.25	Sunderland - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Leeds United - Crystal Palace	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 LTTTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
29.12.24	Derby County - Leeds United	0:1
07.12.24	Leeds United - Derby County	2:0
19.07.20	Derby County - Leeds United	1:3
21.09.19	Leeds United - Derby County	1:1
15.05.19	Leeds United - Derby County	2:4
11.05.19	Derby County - Leeds United	0:1
11.01.19	Leeds United - Derby County	2:0

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