The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Exeter City 38.1%
Draw 29%
Crewe Alexandra 32.9%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
38%
27.9%
34.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
41.3%
30.3%
31.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Exeter City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)
Crewe Alexandra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+3.2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (-1.4%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
11.1%
55.6%
33.3%
Exeter City - Crewe Alexandra Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Crewe will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% โ 88.1%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Bycroft J. (G) 2. Samuel L. 6. Taylor J. 5. Fitzwater J. (C) 3. Woodhouse L. 31. Doyle-Hayes J. 16. Cummins C. 20. Birch G. 8. Perry T. 25. Scully A. 19. Cox S.
1. Booth T. (G) 2. Billington L. (C) 6. Offord L. 12. Stephenson J. 4. Ure K. 19. Lunt O. 10. White J. 11. Tabiner J. 17. Holicek M. 14. Gibson J. 9. March J.
Substitutes
12. Cole R. 10. Gordon J. 24. Harper V. 40. James E. 14. Kite H. 22. Phillips F. (G) 23. Sutherland E.
20. Agius C. 30. Dancey S. 3. Hutchinson R. 13. Lawlor I. (G) 23. McNeill C. 32. Moore L. 29. Thibaut A.
Coaches
Taylor M.
Bell L.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Scully A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Doyle-Hayes J. ↓, Cole R. ↑,
46', Ure K. ↓, Hutchinson R. ↑,
46', White J. ↓, McNeill C. ↑,
57', McNeill C. 🟨,
58', Perry T. ↓, Kite H. ↑,
60', Bell L. 🟨,
66', Scully A. ↓, Gordon J. ↑,
79', Cox S. ↓, Harper V. ↑,
79', Birch G. ↓, Sutherland E. ↑,
79', Gibson J. ↓, Thibaut A. ↑,
81', Fitzwater J. 🟨,
85', Taylor M. 🟨,
86', Lunt O. ↓, Agius C. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 0, Cole R. ⚽,
Preview
A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 16th and 3rd in the Promotion - League One).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 3.
Both teams look competitive and well-prepared heading into this encounter.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
Confirmed absences for Exeter: Rose D.
(Inactive).
Confirmed absences for Crewe: Demetriou M.
(Inactive)
Lankester J.
(Inactive).
Doubtful / questionable for Exeter: Matthews A.
(Injury).
In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Exeter has recorded 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 14:6 (averaging 1.8:0.8 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Exeter against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 9:1 goals (averaging 2.3:0.3 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
4
Crewe
13
5
6
2
16:16
0
21
8
Exeter
13
5
4
4
10:7
3
19
Outrights of English League Two for now
Crewe: 5.98% Exeter: 2.32%
Last Results with these Odds
Exeter City - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 37.95%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.
Crewe Alexandra - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 34.18%, but this team recently wins 59% of matches with these odds.
Watch
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Bycroft J. (G) 
Doyle-Hayes J. 
Ure K. 
Holicek M. 
Harper V. 
James E. 
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