Match Info

Date: 3 March 2020, Tuesday


	Exeter City		Crewe Alexandra

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.3	3.1
	2.25	3.2	3.2
	2.4	3.1	3.2
	2.32	3.16	2.91
	2.5	3.13	3.12
	2.35	3.2	3.1
	2.44	3.32	3.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.26)	3.2 ↓ (3.41)	3.12 ↑ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
40%

Draw
29.6%

Crewe Alexandra
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

27.7%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

20.2%

41.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

The chances for Crewe Alexandra have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Exeter City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Crewe Alexandra could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
51.6%	35.5%	12.9%

Exeter City - Crewe Alexandra Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 16 - 51.6%). Crewe will win (votes: 4 - 12.9%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 35.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Exeter: 34% – 69.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League Two
29.02.20	Exeter City - Crawley Town	1:1 ✺
22.02.20	Northampton Town - Exeter City	2:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
18.02.20	Portsmouth - Exeter City	3:2 ✺
English League Two
15.02.20	Macclesfield Town - Exeter City	2:3 ✺
11.02.20	Exeter City - Oldham Athletic	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TLLWW
- Crewe Alexandra
English League Two
29.02.20	Morecambe - Crewe Alexandra	1:1 ✺
22.02.20	Crewe Alexandra - Macclesfield Town	2:0 ✺
15.02.20	Plymouth Argyle - Crewe Alexandra	2:1 ✺
11.02.20	Crewe Alexandra - Crawley Town	2:1 ✺
08.02.20	Crewe Alexandra - Oldham Athletic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
05.10.19	Crewe Alexandra - Exeter City	1:1
23.02.19	Crewe Alexandra - Exeter City	1:2
15.12.18	Exeter City - Crewe Alexandra	1:0
20.02.18	Crewe Alexandra - Exeter City	1:2
16.09.17	Exeter City - Crewe Alexandra	3:0
04.02.17	Exeter City - Crewe Alexandra	4:0
10.09.16	Crewe Alexandra - Exeter City	2:0

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