Match Info

Date: 15 February 2022, Tuesday


	Exeter City		Harrogate Town

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.8	5
	1.72	3.6	4.6
	1.7	3.75	5
	1.69	3.65	4.7
	1.71	3.9	5.11
	1.7	3.6	4.8
	1.75	3.95	5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (2.03)	3.75 ↑ (3.69)	4.89 ↑ (3.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
55.4%

Draw
25.3%

Harrogate Town
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

26.4%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.9%

21.2%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Exeter City's performance.

Harrogate Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Harrogate Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Harrogate Town than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.9%	10.8%	7.2%

Exeter City - Harrogate Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Exeter City will win (68 of 83 users predict this - 81.93%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.65% – 90.21%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs) and 13).

Exeter has the most likely position - 2 (18.25%), has project points - 77, has currently - 50, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (45%), has a chance of promoted (46%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Harrogate has the most likely position - 15 (10.52%), has project points - 58, has currently - 38, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 10, importance 33, small match rating 22. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Exeter in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Harrogate is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Harrogate could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Exeter is a favorite.

Recent matches Harrogate is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Last 3 head-to-head matches Exeter won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Exeter won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League Two
12.02.22	Bradford City - Exeter City	0:1 ✺
08.02.22	Exeter City - Leyton Orient	1:0 ✺
05.02.22	Swindon Town - Exeter City	1:2 ✺
29.01.22	Exeter City - Hartlepool United	0:0 ✺
22.01.22	Walsall - Exeter City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WWWTW
- Harrogate Town
English League Two
12.02.22	Rochdale - Harrogate Town	3:3 ✺
08.02.22	Harrogate Town - Crawley Town	1:3 ✺
05.02.22	Harrogate Town - Bradford City	2:0 ✺
01.02.22	Harrogate Town - Mansfield Town	0:0 ✺
29.01.22	Stevenage Borough - Harrogate Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
28.08.21	Harrogate Town - Exeter City	1:1
19.01.21	Harrogate Town - Exeter City	0:0
15.12.20	Exeter City - Harrogate Town	1:2

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