Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL TROPHY

Date: 21 November 2023, Tuesday


	Swindon Town		Exeter City

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.3	2.6
	2.35	3.5	2.7	Watch
	2.37	3.39	2.9
	2.37	3.39	2.88
	2.4	3.3	2.45
	2.33	3.4	2.79
	2.28	3.45	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.4)	3.39 ↓ (3.5)	2.72 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swindon Town
39.2%

Draw
27.1%

Exeter City
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

25.5%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

24.1%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swindon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Exeter City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Swindon Town - Exeter City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
44. Ward L. (C) 31. Minturn H. 36. Hart S. 17. Kokolo W. 14. Genesini B. 6. McEachran G. 23. Kinsella L. 43. Hubbard F. 33. McGregor J. 26. Dworzak A. 41. Obodo M.	30. MacDonald S. (G) 26. Sweeney P. 4. Aimson W. (C) 5. Hartridge A. 16. Kite H. 6. Carroll T. 23. Taylor K. 21. Rankine D. 11. Scott J. 47. Richards J. 13. Wildschut Y.
Substitutes
45. Adams F. 35. Brown J. 47. Evans R. (G) 37. Fox H. 42. Keyes J. 39. Larkins K. 34. Milne A.	29. Aitchison J. 39. Diabate C. 31. Harper V. 3. Jules Z. 14. Niskanen I. 35. O'Connor J. 8. Trevitt R.
Coaches
Flynn M.	Caldwell G.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Swindon won 1.

Two teams has got a chain of failures in the last matches.

Swindon could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Swindon won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 13-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Swindon won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swindon Town
English League Two
18.11.23	Harrogate Town - Swindon Town	1:1 ✺
11.11.23	Swindon Town - Stockport County	2:4 ✺
07.11.23	Colchester United - Swindon Town	3:1 ✺
English FA Cup
04.11.23	Swindon Town - Aldershot Town	4:7 ✺
English League Two
28.10.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLLL
- Exeter City
English League One
11.11.23	Fleetwood Town - Exeter City	3:0 ✺
English FA Cup
04.11.23	Exeter City - Wigan Athletic	0:2 ✺
English League Cup
31.10.23	Exeter City - Middlesbrough	2:3 ✺
English League One
28.10.23	Exeter City - Lincoln City	1:1 ✺
24.10.23	Derby County - Exeter City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
08.03.22	Exeter City - Swindon Town	3:1
05.02.22	Swindon Town - Exeter City	1:2
English EFL Trophy
06.10.20	Swindon Town - Exeter City	3:4
English League Two
01.02.20	Swindon Town - Exeter City	2:1
17.08.19	Exeter City - Swindon Town	1:1
01.01.19	Swindon Town - Exeter City	0:2
13.10.18	Exeter City - Swindon Town	2:0

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