Match Info

JAPAN: J2 League - Round 11

Date: 20 April 2024, Saturday

Location: City Light Stadium (Okayama)

Referee: Inoue T. (Jpn)


	Fagiano Okayama		Roasso Kumamoto

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.4	3.2	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.1
	2.15	3.3	3.2	Watch
	2.27	3.41	3.3
	2.26	3.41	3.3
	2.1	3.2	3.1
	2.17	3.25	3.23	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (1.87)	3.3 ↓ (3.47)	3.2 ↓ (4.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fagiano Okayama
42.9%

Draw
28.1%

Roasso Kumamoto
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.1%

27%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

26.1%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fagiano Okayama's form might have worsened.

Roasso Kumamoto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Roasso Kumamoto's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fagiano Okayama, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roasso Kumamoto than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Roasso Kumamoto, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	20%	30%

Fagiano Okayama - Roasso Kumamoto Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Okayama will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Kumamoto will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Okayama: 19% – 81%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Brodersen S. (G) 4. Abe K. 18. Tagami D. 15. Motoyama H. 88. Yanagi T. 6. Wakasa Y. 24. Fujita I. 17. Sueyoshi R. 19. Iwabuchi H. 8. Gabriel Xavier 9. Gleyson	1. Tashiro R. (G) 2. Kuroki K. 24. Ezaki T. 3. Onishi R. 9. Omoto Y. 8. Kamimura S. 21. Toyoda A. 13. Iwashita W. 10. Ito S. 7. Takemoto Y. 16. Matsuoka R.
Substitutes
1. Hotta D. (G) 16. Kawano R. 27. Kimura T. 99. Lucao 44. Semba T. 10. Tanaka Y. 5. Yanagi Y.	5. Abe K. 17. Fujii K. 4. Fujita I. 28. Kumashiro K. 29. Michiwaki Y. 15. Mishima S. 23. Sato Y. (G)
Coaches
Kiyama T.	Oki T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Wakasa Y. ⚽, Iwabuchi H. (A),
45+1', 2 - 0, Iwabuchi H. ⚽, Gleyson (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gabriel Xavier ↓, Kimura T. ↑,
55', Matsuoka R. ↓, Michiwaki Y. ↑,
55', Ito S. ↓, Fujii K. ↑,
68', Iwabuchi H. ↓, Tanaka Y. ↑,
73', Yanagi T. ↓, Kawano R. ↑,
73', Gleyson ↓, Lucao ↑,
79', Omoto Y. ↓, Fujita I. ↑,
79', Takemoto Y. ↓, Kumashiro K. ↑,
86', Motoyama H. ↓, Yanagi Y. ↑,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Okayama won 1.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Recently Okayama have a series of guest games.

Okayama will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Okayama won 5 matches, drawn 9 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 16-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Okayama won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fagiano Okayama
Japan J2 League
14.04.24	Blaublitz Akita - Fagiano Okayama	0:0 ✺
07.04.24	Ehime - Fagiano Okayama	2:2 ✺
03.04.24	Fagiano Okayama - Yokohama FC	1:3 ✺
30.03.24	Oita Trinita - Fagiano Okayama	0:0 ✺
24.03.24	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TTLTW
- Roasso Kumamoto
Japan J2 League
14.04.24	Roasso Kumamoto - Ventforet Kofu	3:3 ✺
07.04.24	Roasso Kumamoto - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:4 ✺
03.04.24	Renofa Yamaguchi - Roasso Kumamoto	1:2 ✺
30.03.24	Roasso Kumamoto - JEF United Chiba	1:0 ✺
24.03.24	Fujieda MYFC - Roasso Kumamoto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
24.07.23	Roasso Kumamoto - Fagiano Okayama	1:2
12.04.23	Fagiano Okayama - Roasso Kumamoto	0:0
02.07.22	Fagiano Okayama - Roasso Kumamoto	0:2
22.04.22	Roasso Kumamoto - Fagiano Okayama	1:1
28.10.18	Roasso Kumamoto - Fagiano Okayama	0:0
28.04.18	Fagiano Okayama - Roasso Kumamoto	3:1
27.08.17	Roasso Kumamoto - Fagiano Okayama	0:1

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