Match Info

FNL - Round 21

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Fakel Stadium (Voronezh)

Referee: Kaplenkov I. (Rus)


	Fakel		Chelyabinsk

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.07	5.4
	1.96	3.07	4.74	Watch
	1.72	2.83	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.7)	2.99 ↓ (3.55)	5.05 ↓ (5.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fakel
50.2%

Draw
31.3%

Chelyabinsk
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

26.9%

16.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

25.8%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fakel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fakel's form might have worsened.

Chelyabinsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fakel than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fakel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelyabinsk than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Fakel - Chelyabinsk Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Chelyabinsk (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelyabinsk (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Frolkin D. (G) 5. Gabaraev A. 20. Yurganov I. 44. Zhuravlev Y. 23. Yakimov V. 8. Bagamaev A. 99. Giorgobiani N. 52. Netfullin R. (C) 10. Alshin I. 21. Gongadze G. 19. Pusi B.	93. Tuseev I. (G) 2. Zhirov A. (C) 79. Abdullin R. 27. Kochiev K. 66. Gudkov Y. 18. Kertanov K. 29. Urvantsev M. 23. Emelyanov D. 77. Samoilov D. 75. Zhamaletdinov T. 88. Eza W.
Substitutes
70. Abdokov N. 77. Bagatelia L. 2. Cherov V. 95. Gaponov I. 17. Kovalev A. 97. Magomedov B. 11. Motpan N. 96. Obukhov I. (G) 18. Simonov K. 9. Turishchev M. 93. Uridia M.	33. Agaev A. 7. Malyarov N. 63. Nikitenkov A. 11. Nosov A. 72. Novikov O. (G) 14. Palkin V. 15. Pushkarev D. 1. Zadiraka V. (G) 9. Zyryanov N.
Coaches
Vasilenko O.	Pilipchuk R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Pusi B. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Abdullin R. ↓, Agaev A. ↑,
46', Eza W. ↓, Pushkarev D. ↑,
46', Emelyanov D. ↓, Nosov A. ↑,
46', Bagamaev A. ↓, Simonov K. ↑,
47', Kochiev K. 🟨,
48', Pusi B. 🟨,
70', Netfullin R. ↓, Magomedov B. ↑,
70', Gongadze G. ↓, Uridia M. ↑,
79', Kochiev K. ↓, Nikitenkov A. ↑,
80', Pusi B. ↓, Motpan N. ↑,
83', Zhamaletdinov T. ↓, Zyryanov N. ↑,
87', Giorgobiani N. ↓, Abdokov N. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 0, Uridia M. ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 5).

Fakel is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Chelyabinsk has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Fakel is a strong favorite.

We predict that Fakel will win today's game, with odds of 1.66.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Fakel won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fakel Voronezh
Russian FNL
23.11.25	Ufa - Fakel	0:4 ✺
16.11.25	Sokol Saratov - Fakel	0:1 ✺
10.11.25	Fakel - Spartak Kostroma	3:2 ✺
03.11.25	Fakel - Torpedo Moscow	2:0 ✺
Russian Cup
30.10.25	Fakel - Arsenal Tula	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWWL
- FC Chelyabinsk
Russian FNL
24.11.25	Rotor - Chelyabinsk	0:2 ✺
16.11.25	Chelyabinsk - KAMAZ	3:3 ✺
10.11.25	Chelyabinsk - Ufa	2:1 ✺
05.11.25	Ural - Chelyabinsk	1:0 ✺
01.11.25	Shinnik - Chelyabinsk	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
04.09.25	Chelyabinsk - Fakel	1:1

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