Match Info

FNL - Round 30

Date: 22 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Fakel Stadium (Voronezh)

Referee: Rubtsov E. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	Match! Premier


	Fakel		Shinnik

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.55	6.44
	1.67	3.42	6.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.56)	3.49 ↓ (3.8)	6.42 ↓ (6.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fakel
57.6%

Draw
27.5%

Shinnik
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

24.9%

14.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.6%

27.4%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fakel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Shinnik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fakel than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fakel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shinnik than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Fakel - Shinnik Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
96. Obukhov I. (G) 95. Gaponov I. 20. Yurganov I. 5. Gabaraev A. 55. Todorovic D. 99. Giorgobiani N. 52. Netfullin R. (C) 23. Yakimov V. 8. Bagamaev A. 7. Gnapi Dable A. 19. Pusi B.	51. Mitrov T. (G) 44. Kornyushin D. 55. Lystsov V. 4. Bozov N. 5. Malyarov K. 50. Golubev A. 64. Lanin O. 21. Galoyan A. 15. Samoilov D. (C) 88. Mironov D. 11. Porokhov I.
Substitutes
70. Abdokov N. 10. Alshin I. 25. Belyaev A. 1. Frolkin D. (G) 97. Magomedov B. 11. Motpan N. 18. Simonov K. 9. Turishchev M. 93. Uridia M. 44. Zhuravlev Y.	27. Chernyi A. 77. Gongapshev A. 1. Ismagilov A. (G) 62. Karpov V. 2. Kosogorov A. 53. Kotin N. 23. Nafikov V. 17. Nikitin K. 95. Vambolt D. (G)
Coaches
Vasilenko O.	Buloychik A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', Bozov N. 🟨,
12', Yakimov V. 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Malyarov K. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Yakimov V. ↓, Magomedov B. ↑,
55', Porokhov I. ↓, Gongapshev A. ↑,
58', 1 - 1, Gnapi Dable A. ⚽,
65', 1 - 2, Samoilov D. ⚽,
73', 2 - 2, Netfullin R. ⚽,
74', Gaponov I. ↓, Alshin I. ↑,
75', Gnapi Dable A. 🟨,
82', Pusi B. ↓, Turishchev M. ↑,
85', Mironov D. ↓, Chernyi A. ↑,
85', Bozov N. ↓, Kotin N. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fakel won 3.

In recent matches, Fakel has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Shinnik is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Fakel is the clear favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Fakel won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:9. (average 1.6:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Fakel won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:7. (average 1.8:1.2).

Outrights of Russian FNL for now

Shinnik Yaroslavl: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Shinnik Yaroslavl	12	3	7	2	15:13	2	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fakel Voronezh
Russian FNL
18.04.26	Chayka Peschanokopskoye - Fakel	2:0 ✺
13.04.26	Fakel - Rodina Moscow	1:3 ✺
05.04.26	Arsenal Tula - Fakel	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Fakel	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Fakel - KAMAZ	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLWWT
- Shinnik Yaroslavl
Russian FNL
18.04.26	Shinnik - Arsenal Tula	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Volga Ulyanovsk - Shinnik	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Shinnik - KAMAZ	0:0 ✺
28.03.26	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Shinnik	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	Spartak Kostroma - Shinnik	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
11.10.25	Shinnik - Fakel	0:1
02.05.21	Shinnik - Fakel	0:2
07.11.20	Fakel - Shinnik	2:0
19.10.19	Fakel - Shinnik	0:4
14.11.18	Shinnik - Fakel	1:0
04.08.18	Fakel - Shinnik	3:0
29.10.17	Shinnik - Fakel	0:1

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