Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 9

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Ramalho P. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	ZAP
Usa	13:00	beIN Connect


	Alverca		Arouca

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.4	3.7	Watch
	2.15	3.25	3.30
	2.02	3.3	3.55	Watch
	2.11	3.32	3.97
	2.06	3.29	3.8	Watch
	2.06	3.25	3.9
	2.13	3.32	3.86	Watch
	2.04	3.35	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.17)	3.31 ↑ (3.18)	3.7 ↑ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alverca
45.8%

Draw
28.6%

Arouca
25.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.6%

29.8%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

30%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Alverca - Arouca Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alverca (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.14) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH -0.25 - Alverca (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Alverca will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Alverca (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Matheus Mendes (G) 14. Baseya S. 21. Gomez S. (C) 12. James I. 20. Spencer D. 35. Rayan Lucas 6. Gui D. 55. Chissumba 10. Chiquinho 19. Camara D. 22. Figueiredo	12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 15. Sanchez J. 3. Fontan J. 18. Lebedenko O. 6. van Ee E. 89. Pedro Santos 19. Trezza A. 8. Fukui T. 7. Djouahra N. 17. Barbero I.
Substitutes
4. Bojang Y. 25. Ian Luccas 24. Jemide M. 91. Jhonatan Luiz (G) 26. Matheus Franca 17. Merheg S. J. 8. Moreira V. 11. Nuozzi C. 9. Semedo V. 2. Touaizi N. 7. Vidigal A. 93. Ze Rafael	37. Climent M. 21. Flores M. 10. Gozalbez P. 14. Lee Hyun-ju 24. Mansilla B. 9. Mayulu F. 4. Monteiro D. 23. Nandin D. 5. Popovic B. 20. Rukavina G. 2. Shahar L. 1. Vinarcik J. (G)
Coaches
Ferreira S.	Severino V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', Baseya S. 🟥,
9', Chissumba ↓, Bojang Y. ↑,
19', Fontan J. 🟨,
25', 0 - 1, Fukui T. ⚽, Sanchez J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rayan Lucas ↓, Ian Luccas ↑,
54', Pedro Santos 🟨,
61', Pedro Santos ↓, Flores M. ↑,
62', Camara D. ↓, Matheus Franca ↑,
66', Barbero I. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
66', Fontan J. ↓, Popovic B. ↑,
71', Figueiredo 🟨,
74', Figueiredo ↓, Touaizi N. ↑,
75', Gui D. ↓, Ze Rafael ↑,
79', Trezza A. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
79', Fukui T. ↓, Lee Hyun-ju ↑,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 8th and 5th in the Promotion - Conference League (Qualification: )).

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Alverca is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Confirmed absences for Alverca: Abdulai S. (Knee Injury) Martinez J. (Knee Injury) Meupiyou B. (Injury) Raveyre N. (Injury).

Confirmed absences for Arouca: Puche (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Alverca: Ian Luccas (Inactive).

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Alverca has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:2 (averaging 1:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Alverca against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Arouca	9	5	2	2	12:7	5	17
8	Alverca	9	3	2	4	13:13	0	11

Outrights of Liga Portugal for now

Arouca: 0.64% Alverca: 0.59%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Alverca
Taça de Portugal
18.10.26	Tondela - Alverca	2:0 AET ✺
Liga Portugal
12.10.26	Famalicão - Alverca	1:4 ✺
19.09.26	Alverca - Rio Ave	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Nacional - Alverca	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Alverca - Braga	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 LWWWL
- FC Arouca
Taça de Portugal
18.10.26	Belenenses - Arouca	3:4 AET ✺
Liga Portugal
11.10.26	Arouca - Estrela da Amadora	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	Sporting Lisbon - Arouca	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Arouca - Santa Clara	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Estoril Praia - Arouca	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
24.04.26	Alverca - Arouca	2:1
14.12.25	Arouca - Alverca	1:0

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